China Economics Weekly Global virus spread adds to downside risks for China The extended disruption from efforts to contain COVID-19 means that China’s economy is already in the midst of the deepest contraction in at least two decades. And the potential hit to foreign demand... 28th February 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Evidence of Q1 contraction continues to mount New data this week on electricity usage in one of China’s largest provinces suggest that activity in the construction, wholesale and retail, and industrial sectors has been running at half the usual... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Economy still on hold three weeks after Lunar NY Two weeks after China was originally due to return to work after the Lunar New Year holiday, economic activity remains extremely subdued. There are some signs that popular concerns about the outbreak... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Coronavirus spread, tariff rollbacks The next few days will be crucial in determining whether efforts to limit the spread of the coronavirus within China have worked and whether workplaces across the country will be allowed to reopen... 7th February 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly A dreadful month The new coronavirus was first identified exactly a month ago. Initially, it was compared to SARS as a benchmark for how bad the outbreak could be. SARS now looks like a best-case scenario. We have... 31st January 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Rapid spread of coronavirus adds to downside risks There is no longer any doubt that the coronavirus outbreak will hurt China’s economy in Q1. While the impact should be short-lived and subsequently reversed, the public and official responses to the... 24th January 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Phase One, Wall Street and the renminbi The Phase One trade deal signed this week includes commitments by China to refrain from competitive devaluations and widen market access for US non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). We doubt the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Inflation to drop back sharply, bond rally not over While the spike in oil prices following the killing of Iranian General Soleimani proved short-lived, oil prices still look set to rise this year on the back of a recovery in demand. But the impact of... 10th January 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Hukou reforms & property, RRR cut, loan repricing The interest rates on virtually all outstanding loans issued by China’s banks will be renegotiated over the next few months as the PBOC implements the most consequential phase of its efforts to... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Defaults hurt credit allocation, banks kept afloat China is ending the year with financial strains once again dominating the headline. The sharp rise in defaults by private firms is cementing creditors’ preference for lending to state firms and so... 20th December 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China trade deal, infrastructure spending A “Phase One” trade deal has reportedly been reached, including a larger-than-expected rollback of US tariffs. But the resulting boost to China’s economy will be modest and the deal still looks at... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Corporate balance sheets still under strain Corporate bond defaults have jumped recently and the loss-making share of industrial firms has risen to its highest in nearly a decade. This may not trigger an immediate crisis but it is a reminder... 6th December 2019 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China rift, 2020 fiscal stance US President Donald Trump’s signing into law of the HK Human Rights and Democracy Act this week, after it received near-unanimous support in Congress, underlines the extent to which “standing up” to... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Hong Kong bill, GDP revisions Trump will probably sign the HK Human Rights & Democracy Act into law during the next week or two. But he may delay its implementation in order to avoid derailing the trade talks. Meanwhile, new... 22nd November 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Trade deal won’t avert a further slowdown The US and China still appear to be making progress towards a trade deal. But a partial tariff rollback wouldn’t provide as much of a boost to exports as is often assumed. And any short-run... 15th November 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Proportional” deal, renminbi, bank mergers A “Phase One” US-China trade deal that partially rolls back tariffs now appears within reach and, as a result, we no longer expect further renminbi weakness in the remaining weeks of this year. But... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
