China Economics Update Has China’s recovery begun? China’s official PMI rose above 50 in March. This is good news, but China’s economy is set for a tepid recovery at best. 2nd April 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Have Chinese interest rates bottomed out? A surge in lending might increase the chances that Chinese interest rates remain on hold this year, but if the economy remains weak, as we expect, the People’s Bank will still be forced to cut again. 12th March 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No new stimulus from China The renewed optimism about China’s prospects that had supported global equities earlier in the week could start to unravel on the back of today’s disappointing budget. 5th March 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Seven key issues at China’s National People’s Congress China’s annual National People’s Congress (NPC) opens tomorrow with an address from Premier Wen Jiabao and the presentation of the government budget. Here are seven key issues to watch. 4th March 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China shifting its investment strategy? The scale of China’s outward investment makes it a potentially powerful force in many markets, but also leaves China with few alternatives to foreign government debt for the bulk of its purchases. 26th February 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China still the US Treasury’s best friend? The sustainability of China’s purchases of US Treasuries is once again being called into question. While the circumstances have shifted, much of the concern is familiar and still, we think, misguided. 4th February 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Worse still to come in China Some glimmers of light in the monthly data from China are raising hopes that the world’s third largest economy may be through the worst after quarterly growth slumped in Q4. But we fear that incoming... 22nd January 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China still suffering hot capital outflows Hot capital continues to flow out of China, although October’s flood has since diminished. This raises the chances of a modest renminbi depreciation against the dollar over the coming year. 13th January 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Chinese exports fall off a cliff Local sources suggest that Chinese exports have experienced a sudden collapse. This may explain last week’s inter-day weakness in the renminbi. But the case for a sustained depreciation is still poor. 8th December 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should China force a renminbi depreciation? A sizeable depreciation of the renminbi against the dollar would be provocative during a global slump and might do little to help China’s economy. 4th December 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China slashes interest rates With credit quotas lifted, China’s aggressive rate cuts today should ensure that the flow of credit to the economy is sustained. But the government’s hopes that the banking sector will finance much of... 26th November 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China abandons credit quotas to support growth The quiet lifting of credit quotas, confirmed in Chinese media over the weekend, is arguably the most significant step taken so far by the authorities as they attempt to limit China’s economic... 4th November 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Botching the slowdown in China In focusing too narrowly on supporting the economy over the short term, China risks undermining its successes in making growth more sustainable over the long term. 22nd October 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Trying, and failing, to make sense of China’s slowdown The sharp slowdown in Chinese GDP growth in the third quarter is hard to square with detail showing still healthy growth in spending across the economy. Nonetheless, officials will err on the side of... 20th October 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital outflows now affecting China too The latest data suggest that investors have been pulling money out of China in recent weeks. After dealing with hot inflows of nearly $200bn in the first half of 2008, officials will be glad for the... 14th October 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China tries to stem the equity slide, again Chinese share valuations are now at their lowest in more than a decade. Yet government attempts today to give them a boost through a tax cut and direct share purchases may be more harmful than helpful... 18th September 2008 · 1 min read
