China Economics Update PMIs add to impression of Asian strength Asia’s PMI releases today add to the weight of evidence that Asia’s recovery has plenty of positive momentum. 1st October 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What does China need to stay healthy at 60? As China’s government celebrates 60 years of the People’s Republic, the experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers underlines the case for China to shift its economic model to sustain rapid growth. 30th September 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China still hurtling along Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy expanded at an annualised pace of 15% over the summer. With many companies only just starting to spend the proceeds of loans, rapid growth... 28th September 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China still accelerating China’s monthly data for August support our view that the economy is still accelerating. The current structure of growth may be unsustainable in the long-run, but the government appears unwilling to... 11th September 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PMIs point to continued momentum in emerging Asia 1st September 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China’s momentum slipping? Investors may have overestimated the speed of China’s recovery in the first half of 2009. But by focusing too narrowly on headline investment and loans data – such as those released for July today –... 11th August 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Don’t trust China’s numbers, but don’t doubt the rebound Few will be surprised by the suggestion on the front page of today’s FT that China’s growth figures don’t add up. We created our China Activity Proxy (CAP) in an attempt to sidestep scepticism about... 5th August 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s leaders play to domestic audiences too The future of the dollar will be in the spotlight at high-level meetings between China and the US today and tomorrow. China is understandably concerned about the value of its stock of reserve assets... 27th July 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China on course for strong growth and asset bubbles in H2 China’s economic recovery is real but the turnaround has probably not been as sharp as the official data would have us believe. Looking ahead, the rapid growth of lending in the first half of the year... 16th July 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hot capital returns to China, raising inflation risks further The revival of confidence in China’s prospects appears to be drawing large amounts of speculative capital back into the economy, swelling the money supply and further raising inflation risks. Much of... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is political stability assured in China? The ongoing ethnic violence in China’s Xinjiang province has far more in common with last year’s unrest in Tibet than the Tiananmen Square demonstrations two decades ago. Investors will shrug it off... 7th July 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s growth still falling short Our in-house measure of growth in the Chinese economy points to a stronger recovery in May but we still doubt that the economy will meets the government’s target for an 8% expansion this year. 22nd June 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of the surge in Chinese investment? China’s reported fixed investment soared in May. But if the economy is doing so well, why did imports post an even steeper decline? 11th June 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More signs that Asia’s recovery is taking its time The slight fall in China’s official PMI in May is actually fairly encouraging since the index usually falls by much more at this time of year. But Asia’s recovery is only gaining ground slowly, as... 1st June 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is investment spurring recovery in China? Chinese investment soared last month according to the official figures. Yet something doesn’t add up. Steel inventories stayed high, steel prices remained flat and sales of excavators have plummeted... 15th May 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slower loan growth good for China, bad for equities April’s sharp fall in the growth of lending in China could expose the degree to which credit growth has supported equities and broader sentiment. Slower loan growth tempers concerns about asset... 11th May 2009 · 1 min read
