China Economics Update Five key issues to watch at the National People’s Congress 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong growth set to surprise on upside Hong Kong’s economy will significantly outpace most people’s expectations this year, but inflation is likely to remain very low. 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation fears set to return Today’s inflation and loan data, and the latest statement from the People’s Bank, may reassure markets that the pace of tightening in China will not be as fast as many had feared. This seems right to... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we worry about minimum wage increases? Proposed increases to China’s minimum wages are relatively small and they tell us very little about the outlook for inflation. 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will monetary growth fuel inflation? China’s money supply expanded rapidly last year, but its growth is already subsiding. With spare capacity still a problem, the ongoing pick-up in inflation is unlikely to last for long. 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How sustainable is China’s recovery? New GDP estimates from the People’s Bank support the message from the latest PMIs that growth in China is stable and strong. However, we believe that growth has already slowed and that continued rapid... 1st February 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China overheating? Growth is strong and inflation rising but China is not overheating. Nonetheless, interest rates are so low that a small hike would have little impact on the real economy. The People’s Bank could... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong data strengthen case for early rate hike China’s attempt to crack down on speculative activity in its property markets does not signal that a property bubble is either inflating or about to burst. The new measures should help to tame price... 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hot money inflows accelerate Hot inflows into China remain at a manageable level for now, but they doubled in Q4 relative to Q3 and are likely to be an increasing threat to monetary stability in the year ahead. 15th January 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China starts to tighten China today hiked the required reserve ratio (RRR) of commercial banks by 50bp. Interest rate hikes will follow but they will be limited by concerns over the durability of the economic recovery. 12th January 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is the view on the ground in China? China’s banks are nervous about the future, its consumers still want to save, but Chinese businesses are basking in healthy sales and profits and, despite government worries, are not particularly... 18th December 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Steady as she goes – November data still strong China’s latest data contain eye-catching turnarounds in inflation and activity growth. But the underlying story is of steady recovery and low price pressures, with an early signal investment will slow... 11th December 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How strong would consumption be without subsidies? China’s household consumption growth would have been much lower this year without subsidies, trade-ins and other government policy support. Investors should not take the current strength of household... 4th December 2009 · 1 min read
