China Economics Update Steady as she goes – November data still strong China’s latest data contain eye-catching turnarounds in inflation and activity growth. But the underlying story is of steady recovery and low price pressures, with an early signal investment will slow... 11th December 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How strong would consumption be without subsidies? China’s household consumption growth would have been much lower this year without subsidies, trade-ins and other government policy support. Investors should not take the current strength of household... 4th December 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is happening to Chinese commodity demand? Soaring inventories and falling imports are strong signs that the supply of many industrial metals in China far exceeds final demand. Needless to say, this reinforces our scepticism about the current... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How will China’s policymakers approach the year ahead? 24th November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What happened to China’s fiscal stimulus? A resurgence in revenue will cap China’s fiscal deficit at just 3% of GDP in 2009. Looking ahead, the Budget for 2010 could signal how committed the government is to economic rebalancing. 20th November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China gearing up for its own lost decade? There are many parallels between the current lending boom in China and that in the late-1980s which brought down Japan’s economy. But there are several reasons to think China will avoid the same fate. 18th November 2009 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update What is behind China’s new language on the renminbi? 13th November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s commodity imports slow Despite further evidence of economic strength, China’s monthly data for October suggested that commodity stockpiling is waning. Lending growth declined more than expected, but credit policy is set to... 11th November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People’s Bank signals sharp growth slowdown in China The latest PMI data support our view that growth in China remains strong. However, the People’s Bank appears to disagree, with potentially major implications for the policy outlook. 2nd November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s growth peaks Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that seasonally-adjusted, q/q growth in China’s economy has peaked, but growth is expected to remain strong for some time. 27th October 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Asset bubbles to be China’s biggest concern in year ahead China’s loan-fuelled stimulus has returned the economy to rapid growth. The key challenge now is sustaining the rebound without inflating asset price bubbles. 22nd October 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More stimulus from China’s banks and much stronger trade There was no let-up last month in the lending growth that is fuelling China’s stimulus. For now, the Chinese recovery is benefitting the rest of the world through stronger imports. But as commodity... 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s hot money worries set to reappear China’s foreign exchange purchases, and hot inflows into its economy, have steadied. But they are likely to rise in the months ahead, adding to the threat of asset price bubbles next year. 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Business conditions continue to improve in China Business conditions in China improved across the board in Q3, but small and privately-owned firms are far less exuberant than their large and state-owned counterparts. 13th October 2009 · 1 min read
