China Economics Update Interest rates likely to remain on hold until Q4 Events in China and Europe this month have reduced the chances that China will raise interest rates in May, as we had expected. A first hike may now wait until the fourth quarter. 30th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of China’s surging copper imports? The surge in China’s copper imports last month has been taken by some as evidence that final demand is booming. But with inventories at unprecedented levels, import demand looks set to tail off again. 29th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of China’s property crackdown? China’s attempt to crack down on speculative activity in its property markets does not signal that a property bubble is either inflating or about to burst. The new measures should help to tame price... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Cooling, not overheating At first glance, today’s GDP data might suggest China is overheating. However, the acceleration in y/y growth in Q1 was entirely due to weakness a year ago. Growth has continued to slow in q/q terms... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update First thoughts on the Qinghai earthquake The death toll from today’s earthquake in Western China is likely to rise as more details come in. The affected region is among China’s poorest and, perversely, rescue and recovery efforts could end... 14th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How strong are speculative inflows? Speculative inflows into China’s economy were weak in the first quarter, but they seem to have picked up in the last few weeks as expectations have strengthened that the renminbi’s appreciation... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wider renminbi band would be largely symbolic Chinese policymakers are reportedly close to agreement on the next step in exchange rate reform: a widening of the renminbi’s trading band with the dollar. This would be a sensible move, but its... 31st March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.) Most of the upward pressure on inflation in recent months has come from food prices. These are now stabilising and there are few signs of broader inflation pressures waiting in the wings. 31st March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China set for a well-timed trade deficit The timing of China’s first monthly trade deficit in six years, if confirmed by March’s data, is almost too good to be true. 30th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A pivotal moment for relations with the US? The US Treasury’s upcoming announcement on whether China is a “currency manipulator” might not be the pivotal moment some are expecting. That doesn’t mean that a quarrel over the exchange rate can be... 18th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2010 China’s businesses and banks remain confident and do not think the economy is overheating, but consumers are unhappy about prices and reluctant to spend. 16th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation expectations are falling. Should we care? Figures released today suggest that inflation expectations are easing in China. This measure of expectations has a very poor record as a guide to what is about to happen to inflation, but the latest... 16th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Seven misconceptions about China We find it increasingly hard to recognise the inflation-ridden, bubble-filled China that we read about in the newspapers. Popular consensus seems to be settling on the view that China is overheating... 16th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No rush to tighten Relatively mild increases in consumer and property prices in the first two months of the year relax pressure for immediate policy tightening in China. 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China serious about rebalancing? The Prime Minister’s address to the National People’s Congress today highlighted near-term policy continuity but offered little sign the government is getting to grips with China’s structural... 5th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Consumer price inflation probably climbed to more than 2% last month and is likely to continue drifting higher. But a closer look shows few signs of major price pressures. 2nd March 2010 · 1 min read
