China Economics Update Gliding to a soft landing A few weeks ago, the common view was that China was overheating and so heading for a crash. (We strongly disagreed.) The mood now seems to be shifting, partly due to worries about the global outlook... 28th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China finally rebalancing? How much progress has there been in efforts to rebalance China’s economy? US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is positive, saying that “it looks as if there has been a durable shift towards domestic... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What did we learn at the US-China Dialogue? Markets have reined in even further their expectations of renminbi appreciation and are now pricing in a meagre 0.6% gain against the dollar over the next 12 months. That is surely too little. Indeed... 25th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How will Europe’s troubles affect China’s currency policy? Worries about Europe have prompted us to revise down our forecasts for the renminbi’s future pace of gains, but we still expect appreciation against the dollar to resume at some point between next... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No sign inflation is picking up Inflation pressures remain low in China. There are signs in the April data that the boost that stimulus policies have provided to consumer spending is easing. But for now, the recovery still looks... 11th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the People's Bank signalling a policy shift? Contrary to some suggestions doing the rounds in the media and the markets, China’s central bank has not shifted its position on exchange rate policy in its latest quarterly report. 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr.) Tomorrow’s inflation data are likely to show a rebound in the headline rate in April. But a close look at recent trends suggests that inflationary pressures remain weak. With the economy set to slow... 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Interest rates likely to remain on hold until Q4 Events in China and Europe this month have reduced the chances that China will raise interest rates in May, as we had expected. A first hike may now wait until the fourth quarter. 30th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of China’s surging copper imports? The surge in China’s copper imports last month has been taken by some as evidence that final demand is booming. But with inventories at unprecedented levels, import demand looks set to tail off again. 29th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of China’s property crackdown? China’s attempt to crack down on speculative activity in its property markets does not signal that a property bubble is either inflating or about to burst. The new measures should help to tame price... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Cooling, not overheating At first glance, today’s GDP data might suggest China is overheating. However, the acceleration in y/y growth in Q1 was entirely due to weakness a year ago. Growth has continued to slow in q/q terms... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update First thoughts on the Qinghai earthquake The death toll from today’s earthquake in Western China is likely to rise as more details come in. The affected region is among China’s poorest and, perversely, rescue and recovery efforts could end... 14th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How strong are speculative inflows? Speculative inflows into China’s economy were weak in the first quarter, but they seem to have picked up in the last few weeks as expectations have strengthened that the renminbi’s appreciation... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wider renminbi band would be largely symbolic Chinese policymakers are reportedly close to agreement on the next step in exchange rate reform: a widening of the renminbi’s trading band with the dollar. This would be a sensible move, but its... 31st March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.) Most of the upward pressure on inflation in recent months has come from food prices. These are now stabilising and there are few signs of broader inflation pressures waiting in the wings. 31st March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China set for a well-timed trade deficit The timing of China’s first monthly trade deficit in six years, if confirmed by March’s data, is almost too good to be true. 30th March 2010 · 1 min read