China Economics Update Mounting US pressure behind renminbi movement The renminbi’s latest gains appear to be a response to rising US criticism that the pace of movement in the exchange rate since June has been too slow. This reactive approach could backfire as... 14th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Consumer price inflation continues to rise on the back of rapid food price increases, which should prove short-lived. Underlying price pressures remain weak. 9th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The RMB as an international currency: don't believe the hype The government has announced a series of moves over the last month designed to push the renminbi along the road to becoming an international currency. But major obstacles stand in the way, not least... 6th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What's happening to China's commodity demand? The recent import data suggest that China’s demand for industrial metals and for oil has levelled out this year after a sharp rebound in 2009. This is consistent with other evidence that China’s... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Momentum still fading The Conference Board’s leading index is picking up again, but other forward-looking indicators suggest that China’s economy is continuing to slow. We still think that the authorities will have to... 17th August 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Further signs of weakness in July data The economy appears to be slowing more rapidly than anticipated a couple of months ago, according to data released today. China’s government has plenty of room to loosen policy to avoid a hard landing... 11th August 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Widespread flooding may have pushed food prices higher last month, but sharp falls in inflation are not too far away. 9th August 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Return of the peg In a series of statements at the end of July, the People’s Bank (PBC) laid out a comprehensive position on the role of the renminbi in China’s broader policy framework. The five articles from Vice... 4th August 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How significant is the non-performing loan threat? Rising non-performing loan levels are very unlikely to trigger a banking crisis in China, but measures taken to clean up bad debt may hold back economic growth and the pace of rebalancing. 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s impossible trinity China is seeking to rein in bank lending and hold to a conservative fiscal stance while maintaining rapid economic growth. It cannot do all three. 27th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Downside risks to growth intensify China’s Q2 GDP growth was in line with our expectation, but unexpected weakness in the June activity data suggests the government may be forced to loosen policy sooner than originally thought. 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi appreciation stalls The renminbi has virtually stopped moving against the dollar over the last fortnight and is actually weaker in trade-weighted terms than it was when currency reforms were restarted just under a month... 14th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slowdown in reserve accumulation unlikely to last China’s foreign exchange purchases slumped in Q2, but will probably pick up again as the trade surplus rises in the second half of the year. 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Inflation might have risen again last month but the peak is probably not far away. 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The significance of China’s latest investment plans Plans for new investment in Western China probably do not constitute a new stimulus, but should temper concerns that tighter rules on local government project financing will lead to a slump in... 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slowdown set to continue, market concerns to linger Current concerns about China’s slowdown are more justified than the previous fears of overheating. The government will probably loosen policy towards the end of the year, helping to maintain growth at... 6th July 2010 · 1 min read
