China Economics Update Commodity prices drive abrupt rebalancing of China's trade High commodity prices have achieved what the last Five-Year Plan and a string of summits with key trading partners could not: a rebalancing of Chinese trade. In this China Watch we consider the... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Overheating concerns set to decline Evidence is mounting that China’s overheating threat is receding. The People’s Bank will continue to raise reserve requirements, as it did today, to ensure that bank lending remains under control... 18th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q1 2011 China’s businesses are signalling that demand is slowing. Households are slightly less concerned about inflation than they were three months ago. By a wide margin, they still prefer to save rather... 16th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Retail sales slowdown highlights challenge of rebalancing With the usual volatility around Chinese New Year and revisions to the way key data are collected clouding the view, about the only clear picture that emerges from China’s latest data is that retail... 11th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation trouble underlines China’s growth failures Premier Wen Jiabao put price stability at the centre of the government’s concerns in his speech at the weekend. So here is a question for delegates to the National People’s Congress to ponder during... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Non-food inflation has continued to rise but we remain sanguine about the outlook, not least because much of the latest increase seems to be due to the introduction of new index weights. High oil... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China committed to rebalancing? Much of the talk at the National People’s Congress is of the need to boost domestic demand. But with the finance ministry projecting an even smaller budget deficit for 2011 than 2010, the government’s... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of the lower growth target? The inclusion of a lower growth target in the new Five-Year Plan is a simple acknowledgement that growth will slow as China’s pool of surplus rural workers dries up. The call for better quality growth... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong property bubble growing Hong Kong’s economy is growing at a healthy pace but residential property looks increasingly overvalued and today’s budget underlines that the government has few effective means to help. 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation falls well short of expectations Consumer price inflation last month was well below expectations. Bank lending soared, as usual at this time of year, but the People’s Bank does seem to have had some success in slowing the pace of... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update January loan surge tests new credit policy January’s consumer price inflation figures will be the most closely-watched of China’s upcoming batch of data. But the lending data will also be worth a look for what they tell us about the government... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) The sharp increase in food prices ahead of Chinese New Year is no surprise, but evidence of rising non-food price inflation is a greater cause for concern. Still, if we are right that economic growth... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People's Bank aims to curb speculation by savers Today’s interest rate announcement again showed the People’s Bank applying the biggest rate increases to long-term deposits, in an attempt to encourage savers to keep their money in banks rather than... 8th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update US-China trade tensions remain a threat The US Treasury has again chosen not to label China a currency manipulator. With US economic prospects looking brighter, the immediate risk of a flare up in tensions over China’s trade and currency... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property tax falls short of (low) expectations The property tax plans that were announced yesterday look more like token measures than serious attempts to dampen property market speculation or provide local governments with a secure source of... 28th January 2011 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China’s imbalances getting wider China’s dual imbalances – its trade surplus and its domestic reliance on investment over consumption – both widened in real terms in 2010. Government fiscal policy made things worse. 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
