China Economics Update Import data point to recovery in domestic demand Neither rising wages nor growing fears about the global outlook seem to be causing any difficulties for China’s exporters. Meanwhile, the latest import data are consistent with a strong pick-up in... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slower inflation and continued weakness in consumption Inflation fell in August and is likely to end the year much lower than today. This should open the door for policymakers to relax controls on lending, particularly if export demand slows 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline inflation probably declined in August. It may rebound in September but is likely to have dropped to 5% or lower by the end of the year. This would remove a significant barrier to further... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Premier Wen unshaken by market turmoil Policymakers in other emerging markets may be reassessing their options after a month of dire data from the major Western economies. But the government in Beijing appears confident that China can... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How could China help the rest of the world? China has room to stimulate demand in the event of a slump in growth and could also play a role in stabilising global markets. But there is less space for a major stimulus today than in 2008. As then... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation rises, but economic activity is weak China's consumer-price inflation remained high in July, while activity data suggest that growth was sluggish at the start of the third quarter. On the face of it, this poses a dilemma for China's... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Pork prices fell in the second half of July. It is too soon to sound the all-clear. But given that consumer price inflation in everything except pork was stable over the first half of the year, this... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How would China react to a US downgrade? China may be the US government’s largest foreign creditor but it has no better option than to hope for the best and try to calm any market jitters in the event of a US downgrade. 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How interest rate policy undermines China’s growth Many of China’s smaller companies are struggling as government efforts to control inflation cause their borrowing costs to soar. The solution, as strange as it may sound, is for benchmark interest... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hard landing fears recede, but imbalances grow China’s stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP data should reduce fears about a hard landing in the near future. But the structural trends were less encouraging: consumer spending continues to fall as a share... 14th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What was behind the lending rebound? Last month’s lending rebound was driven by short-term credit and may have done more for asset markets than the economy. Medium and long-term lending increased by the least since 2008. 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No need to panic over inflation surge June's increase in inflation was largely caused by an acceleration in pork prices which is unlikely to last. Non-food prices did not rise at all last month, supporting the view that broad price... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) A decline in China's pig population at the turn of the year is now resulting in a surge in pork prices that probably pushed consumer price inflation above 6% y/y last month. Price pressures for non... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What do the leading indicators tell us about the outlook? Evidence has mounted over the past month that China’s economy is slowing. In this China Watch we take a closer look at China’s leading indicators for clues about the outlook. We also preview the... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could rate hikes push China into a hard landing? Today’s benchmark rate increase signals that officials still view inflation as the major near-term threat to China. There will be little direct impact on the economy and the move does not make a hard... 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Can China solve the euro-zone’s problems? Despite warm words of support from China’s leaders, there is no reason to believe that China has the ability to solve the euro-zone’s debt crisis. We estimate that China has already bought more than... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
