China Economics Update What do the leading indicators tell us about the outlook? Evidence has mounted over the past month that China’s economy is slowing. In this China Watch we take a closer look at China’s leading indicators for clues about the outlook. We also preview the... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could rate hikes push China into a hard landing? Today’s benchmark rate increase signals that officials still view inflation as the major near-term threat to China. There will be little direct impact on the economy and the move does not make a hard... 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Can China solve the euro-zone’s problems? Despite warm words of support from China’s leaders, there is no reason to believe that China has the ability to solve the euro-zone’s debt crisis. We estimate that China has already bought more than... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q2 2011 Businesses feel that demand is slowing while household concerns about inflation have continued to ease. But households are also downbeat about income growth and this seems to be undermining any... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People's Bank still in tightening mode The People’s Bank of China has signalled that it remains in tightening mode by responding to the latest high inflation numbers with a reserve ratio hike. 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Weaker lending adds to growth concerns Weakening credit growth and a slowing economy present a policy dilemma when inflation is still high. Our view remains that inflation will taper off in the second half of the year and that growth will... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) The gradual slowdown in economic growth should help to ease price pressures over coming months. Recent figures show that food prices continue to fall, while underlying non-food inflation appears to be... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much further will China tighten? Monetary conditions in China are no longer particularly loose and efforts to “normalise” policy are probably nearer to completion than generally believed. We expect three more reserve ratio increases... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Does China face a hard landing? China has been slowing for a while but a hard landing is unlikely. The threat from power shortages is less severe than may first seem and with inflation likely to fade – in part due to slower growth –... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong Hong Kong growth stokes property bubble fears Hong Kong is on course for another year of above-trend growth after a strong performance in Q1, but its property bubble is growing. Prices could plausibly halve if buyers started to question how long... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation high, activity unexpectedly weak Inflation fell last month but it remains at a level that will keep China’s policymakers on edge. There was also further evidence that the economy was weaker at the start of Q2 than previously thought... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr.) Headline inflation probably fell last month on the back of sharp outright falls in vegetable prices. With economic growth stabilising, policymakers signalling they are willing to tolerate faster... 10th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Thaw in US-China relations unlikely to last Today’s economic discussions between China and the US are taking place in an atmosphere of unusual warmth. There are two obvious reasons – the fall in China’s trade surplus and the renminbi’s recent... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A policy shift on the renminbi China appears to be on the verge of allowing faster currency appreciation in response to inflation . This may not last long if inflation drops back in the second half of the year, as we expect. For... 19th April 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Activity slows, inflation concerns remain China’s Q1 GDP data confirm that the economy has slowed, though the seasonally-adjusted figures were less enlightening than we had hoped. The continued strength of food price inflation is a concern... 15th April 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of the new financing measure? The People’s Bank today launched a new measure of financing conditions. In this Update we outline what the new measure is and how useful we expect it to be. 14th April 2011 · 1 min read
