China Economics Update How rapidly will China relax capital controls? China is slowly relaxing its capital controls but unfettered cross-border flows won’t be allowed until the currency floats and the financial sector has been overhauled. This could take a decade, but... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Gradual policy easing to continue The weekend cut to reserve requirements was so long in coming that some investors had begun to question whether the People’s Bank was really committed to policy loosening at all. We believe it is... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Current account surplus falling but trade frictions to remain Data released on the eve of Vice President Xi Jinping's visit to the US show that China's current account surplus has continued to tumble. But plenty of potential sources of trade friction remain. 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Another look at China's shifting labour market China is undergoing a major shift in its labour market as the surplus of rural workers dries up. But, after delving into the details, we conclude that several factors will dampen the speed at which... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) Consumer price inflation was probably little changed in January but it is still likely to be much lower in a few months’ time. 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong growth to remain weak despite expansionary budget Hong Kong’s economy remained weak in the fourth quarter. Despite an expansionary budget, falling inflation, and the prospect of continued strong spending by Chinese tourists, Hong Kong’s trade... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will China’s rebalancing last? China’s trade surplus has halved in the last three years thanks to global weakness and the strength of Chinese investment demand. We expect a further decline in 2012, but then a rebound as China’s... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Unexpectedly strong in Q4, but property problems looming China’s Q4 data suggest the economy is stronger than previously thought. But problems in real estate are mounting as developers’ holdings of unsold properties swell. Meanwhile, investment appears to... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update NBS business conditions survey (Q4) China’s largest quarterly business survey shows that confidence among property developers has collapsed. Among firms more generally, it is private companies that – once again – are faring worst. 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How should we think about the leadership transition? 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) Consumer price inflation may have stabilised in December, partly due to seasonal factors. But with spare capacity rising, further significant falls are likely after Chinese New Year. 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How vulnerable is Asia to a euro-zone banking crisis? The impact on emerging Asia of a fall in lending by euro-zone banks to the region would be small. However, Asia would be vulnerable if the crisis in the euro-zone caused global credit markets to... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Global slowdown will expose failure to boost consumption China’s 2008 stimulus was intended to buy time while the economy made the transition to sustainable, consumer-led growth. It hasn’t worked out as planned. The next few weeks are likely to reveal how... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers embrace pro-growth stance It takes some reading between the lines in today’s statement on policy priorities for 2012 to find evidence that the policy setting has changed. Nonetheless, the shift is real. 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation plummets, activity slows November’s drop in inflation was even sharper than expected and the data on investment and industrial output were weak too. The government is leaving its boilerplate language on policy unchanged... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emerging Economies: Five key calls for 2012 We broadly agree with the consensus view that most emerging economies will hold up well in 2012. But with the US set to slow and the euro-zone heading towards break-up, the path ahead is going to be... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
