China Economics Update Banks respond to stimulus call as economy stabilises The May data brought evidence that conditions in China’s economy stopped deteriorating last month and may have moderately improved. With its banks now pumping out loans to willing state-owned... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Consumer price inflation probably eased only slightly in May, but we expect larger falls to come in the next couple of months. This should reassure policymakers that they can continue to focus on... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Interest rate cuts underline determination to shore up growth Today’s benchmark interest rate cuts are a strong signal that policymakers are going all out to shore up China’s economy. Commercial banks are also being allowed to set both lending and deposit rates... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Who in Asia is most vulnerable to a hard landing in China? Recent weak data from China has led to renewed fears of a hard landing in Asia’s biggest economy. The countries most exposed would be those for which China is an important export market such as Hong... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why are fiscal options being neglected? Despite a healthy budget position, the stimulus plans being unveiled in China are heavily-weighted towards investment. In this China Watch we ask why fiscal options are being neglected. We also look... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China's stimulus dilemma China’s policymakers have the ability to shore up economic growth in the short-term. But in doing so, they will increase the chances that the economy will experience a sharper slump two or three years... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stimulus set to fuel recovery We believe that the stimulus efforts unveiled in the last few days will be sufficient to drive an economic recovery in the second half of 2012 but at the cost of further entrenching China’s economic... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Required reserve ratio cut not enough to trigger rebound This weekend’s policy move by the People’s Bank is likely to be the precursor to a more explicitly pro-growth stance from China’s government. April’s awful data suggest that officials so far this year... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong falters in Q1 Hong Kong’s economy had a weak start to the year, expanding in Q1 at the same tepid pace as in Q4 and confounding hopes that growth would accelerate. We think growth will probably pick up over the... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update April slump to prompt more easing Just about everything in China’s economy seems to have gone backwards in April. Growth of retail spending, investment, industrial output and imports declined. Lending slowed. On the positive side... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr.) Consumer price inflation probably fell back slightly in April. Reforms to the pricing of water, electricity and gas will probably push up non-food inflation over coming months, but not by enough to... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is weak loan demand holding back the recovery? Policymakers’ attempts to stimulate China’s economy have so far centred on increasing the amount that banks can lend. But many are concerned that weak loan demand is hampering these efforts. In this... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of the widened renminbi band? The immediate impact of a wider renminbi trading band on the exchange rate will be small, we suspect, but the reform is an important signal of renewed momentum behind economic policy liberalisation. 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Government commits to further loosening China’s growth continued to slow in Q1. But there were some clues in the latest data that the economy is bottoming out and, with the State Council giving a strong signal today that credit policy will... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policy easing starting to have an impact Much stronger-than-expected lending in March adds to the likelihood that tomorrow’s Q4 GDP figures will be reassuringly strong and signals that policy easing is starting to have an effect. Meanwhile... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Optimism on China’s current account is premature Given China’s failure to rein in investment-led growth, its current account surplus is likely to rebound both in dollar terms a year or two from now and relative to its own GDP too. Relative to world... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
