China Economics Update How should we think about the leadership transition? 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) Consumer price inflation may have stabilised in December, partly due to seasonal factors. But with spare capacity rising, further significant falls are likely after Chinese New Year. 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How vulnerable is Asia to a euro-zone banking crisis? The impact on emerging Asia of a fall in lending by euro-zone banks to the region would be small. However, Asia would be vulnerable if the crisis in the euro-zone caused global credit markets to... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Global slowdown will expose failure to boost consumption China’s 2008 stimulus was intended to buy time while the economy made the transition to sustainable, consumer-led growth. It hasn’t worked out as planned. The next few weeks are likely to reveal how... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers embrace pro-growth stance It takes some reading between the lines in today’s statement on policy priorities for 2012 to find evidence that the policy setting has changed. Nonetheless, the shift is real. 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation plummets, activity slows November’s drop in inflation was even sharper than expected and the data on investment and industrial output were weak too. The government is leaving its boilerplate language on policy unchanged... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emerging Economies: Five key calls for 2012 We broadly agree with the consensus view that most emerging economies will hold up well in 2012. But with the US set to slow and the euro-zone heading towards break-up, the path ahead is going to be... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) Consumer price inflation may have fallen a percentage point or more in November. It will be a while before the impact of policy stimulus is felt, with the result that China faces a period of below... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What would a euro-zone break-up mean for China’s markets? Policy stimulus is usually positive for Chinese equities but if it comes against a backdrop of a euro-zone break-up, gains are likely to be relatively low. In these circumstances, we would also expect... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People's Bank signals major shift With a statement comprising a single sentence on its website, the People’s Bank of China today signalled a major policy shift. Incoming economic data have been weak and the global outlook is worsening... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How badly will China’s exporters be hit? Rapid wage growth, renminbi appreciation and inflation have not put much of a dent in China’s export competitiveness. We expect export growth to halve next year, but for Chinese exporters nonetheless... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong facing a difficult year ahead Hong Kong escaped falling into recession in the third quarter, but the economy remains very weak. Given our forecast that global growth will slow further next year, and the risks of a local property... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation tumbles Inflation fell sharply in October and further falls are likely in coming months. With downside risks to economic growth high and rising, today’s data bolster our confidence that China’s policy is set... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Consumer price inflation probably fell sharply in October and we expect a further steep fall in November. Credit policy is likely to be loosened in coming weeks. 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China on cusp of policy shift The coming few weeks are likely to mark a turning point in Chinese policy. October’s data should provide the clearest evidence yet that inflation is fading. Signs of stress are building in the real... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Chinese whispers alone won't save the euro Despite yet another round of speculation suggesting that China is about to ride to the rescue of the euro-zone, Europe will still have to solve its own problems. Meaningful Chinese support would... 29th October 2011 · 1 min read