China Economics Update Government commits to further loosening China’s growth continued to slow in Q1. But there were some clues in the latest data that the economy is bottoming out and, with the State Council giving a strong signal today that credit policy will... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policy easing starting to have an impact Much stronger-than-expected lending in March adds to the likelihood that tomorrow’s Q4 GDP figures will be reassuringly strong and signals that policy easing is starting to have an effect. Meanwhile... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Optimism on China’s current account is premature Given China’s failure to rein in investment-led growth, its current account surplus is likely to rebound both in dollar terms a year or two from now and relative to its own GDP too. Relative to world... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What does the increase in QFII and RQFII quotas mean? The increase in the amount of funds foreign investors are allowed to invest in China’s financial markets is the latest in a series of steps that relax controls on cross-border capital flows. The move... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.) Consumer price inflation may have edged up in March, but this would still largely reflect volatility around Chinese New Year. The recent increase in gasoline prices should have little impact on the... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Manufacturing still soft despite strong official PMI The divergence between China’s two manufacturing PMIs for March, released over the weekend, largely reflects the seasonal strength and perhaps a bias towards larger firms in the official index. On... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What difference would a wider RMB trading band make? The next major reform in China’s exchange rate policy is likely to be a widening of the renminbi’s daily trading band with the dollar. In this month’s China Watch, we consider the implications of such... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China's move up the value chain a threat to Asian economies? As China develops, its manufacturing firms are moving into higher-value sectors. While this is a boon for low-wage Asian economies that represent a good alternative for low-end producers... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No need to worry about low-end exports losing market share China’s share of the world’s low-end exports has started to fall. This reflects a shift by Chinese producers into sectors where margins are higher rather than a failure to compete. China’s export... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2012 Business confidence in China has perked up this quarter, although demand has continued to slow. Meanwhile, a smaller share of people think property prices are excessive now than a few months ago but... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Key challenges await Hong Kong’s new chief executive Regardless of which candidate wins the election on Sunday, the new chief executive will face a series of challenges as Hong Kong grapples with how best to deal with slowing exports, rising inequality... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What do Wen’s comments mean for property and the renminbi? Today’s comments from Premier Wen Jiabao at the close of the National People’s Congress have sparked interest in the outlook for China’s property and exchange rate policies and in the prospects for... 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Huge trade deficit, but questions too over domestic demand Exports to the US were a bright spot, but the general picture from China’s latest trade data is that global demand is still subdued. What’s more, imports have grown only slightly faster than exports... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stop worrying about the new growth target The implications of China lowering its growth target have, in our view, been widely misunderstood. The lower target will have no direct impact on policy. Slower growth in China’s economy would also... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation falls, but activity disappoints at start of year Today’s spending and output data were disappointing, suggesting the apparent turnaround at the end of last year has already run out of steam. There are clouds on the horizon too: property sales are... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) We think consumer price inflation dropped significantly in February. We expect further small falls to the middle of the year, which will provide room for more policy easing. Oil prices at their... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
