China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) December’s data will give us the last “clean” view of inflation before price volatility around Chinese New Year obscures the picture. They are likely to show that consumer price inflation is rising... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q4 2012 Business confidence in China has recovered slightly though it remains subdued. Banks are eager to lend but firms show little appetite for loans. Meanwhile, households are increasingly optimistic and... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong's low unemployment no support for domestic demand Hong Kong’s unemployment rate remains low despite the weak economy, as employers have responded to falling demand by cutting wage growth. The result has been a slowdown in consumption. Even if... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The US fiscal cliff: implications for Asia The nightmare scenario of the US Congress failing to reach a deal on the fiscal cliff would see growth in Asia’s most trade-dependent countries slow by up to 1 percentage point in 2013. 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update First test of new leadership's appetite for reform The release later this month of government proposals to reduce income inequality will provide early evidence of whether a change of leadership in Beijing has given new momentum to economic reform. The... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Signs economic recovery is faltering Today’s disappointing trade data have added to our doubts about the sustainability of China’s rebound. The weekend’s figures on investment and industrial production were more encouraging but they... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) China’s consumer price inflation is picking up and could spike much higher around February’s Chinese New Year holiday. It will be higher than today once that seasonal distortion passes, but we don’t... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Recovery to fade in 2013 The government is likely to set a low target for growth next year that the economy will beat. But expectations that China’s growth will continue to accelerate through 2013 are likely to be... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBC foreign exchange purchases set to resume Purchases of foreign exchange by the People’s Bank have slowed to a crawl this year. We believe this is a pause in, rather than the end of, China’s era of massive foreign reserve accumulation. 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China's exporters still shrugging off fast-rising wages For years, the abiding view of China has been of a workshop powered by waves of young migrants able to outcompete workers elsewhere on the basis of low wages. This image is increasingly wide of the... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slow growth in Hong Kong set to continue into 2013 Hong Kong’s economy returned to growth in the third quarter, but the pace of expansion was still very weak. With the global economy likely to remain depressed over the next year, a strong rebound... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New line-up dents but doesn’t derail hopes of reform The unveiling of China’s new leadership in the Great Hall of the People today has dented hopes of economic policy reform. Of the three “reformist” candidates thought to have had a chance of joining... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we worry about pork prices again? A new government scheme to stabilise China’s volatile pork market appears to be succeeding. As a result, the re-emergence of pork-driven inflation that some have started to warn about is unlikely to... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slow loan growth no concern given signs of economic recovery The tepid pace of bank lending revealed in figures released today will not be much of a concern to policymakers given the upbeat tone of recent economic data, including October’s double-digit increase... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the October surprise too good to be true? China’s October activity data provide the strongest signs so far of economic recovery. Given that they have been published while the Party Congress is in session, some sceptics have questioned whether... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are rising wages hurting China's exporters? A further doubling of average incomes this decade, as pledged in the Party Congress today by President Hu Jintao, will probably not undermine China highly-competitive manufacturing sector. 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
