China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Consumer price inflation probably picked up slightly last month. It is likely to rise further in coming months, constraining policymakers’ ability to support the economy. 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Glimmers of reform ahead of leadership handover China will unveil a new group of leaders in the next few weeks. There are tentative signs that they will finally start to grapple with the structural challenges facing the economy. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can the economy recover without a rebound in property? When the global financial crisis hit, a surge in real estate investment helped China’s economy escape the slump. The government in Beijing is trying to engineer a recovery from the current downturn... 29th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Further reserve requirement cuts still likely The People’s Bank of China has this week conducted the most aggressive open market operations of the year, leading to questions over whether it is shifting away from its reliance on the required... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why is investment not rebounding? Months after policy was loosened, investment growth has barely responded. State-directed investment is picking up but not by enough to offset the reluctance of real estate developers and the rest of... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong economy unlikely to rebound anytime soon Hong Kong’s economy contracted in Q2. With global growth set to disappoint over the next couple of years, we expect Hong Kong’s trade-dependent economy to continue to struggle in the coming quarters. 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economic rebound remains elusive China’s stimulus efforts are feeding a pick-up in infrastructure investment but recovery has not so far spread to the rest of the economy. 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital outflows still under control Fears about capital leaving China are overdone. Recent pressure on the People’s Bank to sell foreign exchange appears to be the result of greater willingness among Chinese firms to hold on to their... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Local governments’ stimulus won’t fuel a sharp rebound Local governments across China have unveiled a series of stimulus plans, echoing the recent message from top authorities of the need to ensure strong growth. More stimulus plans are likely to follow... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.12) Consumer price inflation should have fallen slightly in July. Although we expect a gradual pick-up in the months ahead, overall inflation is likely to remain low, allowing policymakers’ focus to stay... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update An end to renminbi appreciation? The renminbi’s rise against the dollar stalled at the beginning of 2012 and the currency has fallen back in the last few weeks. The scale of depreciation to date is small – little more than 1% since... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Higher food prices alone won’t derail China’s economy The recent surge in global agricultural commodity prices – if sustained – will add to the downside risks to China’s economy but it is unlikely to be a decisive factor. Overall inflationary pressures... 23rd July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Lending set to fuel investment-led rebound in short-term Today’s strong lending data cast last week’s rate cut in a new light. Policy is being eased further even though earlier stimulus measures had already started to take effect. That suggests the... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property risks remain China’s frozen property market is showing signs of a thaw. Sales took off in the second half of June and prices are rising for the first time in months. Recovery in the sector would help haul the... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Second rate cut points to deepening growth concerns Today’s unexpected interest rate cut suggests that policymakers in China are increasingly rattled by the state of the economy. The move’s loosening impact will be amplified by the decision to increase... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Consumer price inflation tumbled to near 2% y/y in June, we believe. With the government pushing up electricity prices for heavy residential users starting this week, the headline rate may not get... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
