China Economics Update Slow loan growth no concern given signs of economic recovery The tepid pace of bank lending revealed in figures released today will not be much of a concern to policymakers given the upbeat tone of recent economic data, including October’s double-digit increase... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the October surprise too good to be true? China’s October activity data provide the strongest signs so far of economic recovery. Given that they have been published while the Party Congress is in session, some sceptics have questioned whether... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are rising wages hurting China's exporters? A further doubling of average incomes this decade, as pledged in the Party Congress today by President Hu Jintao, will probably not undermine China highly-competitive manufacturing sector. 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China's leadership change matters more to EMs than US election The imminent leadership change in China is a more significant event for emerging economies than the re-election of President Obama. The installation of a cohesive Chinese leadership committed to... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) China’s consumer price inflation was stable in October, we believe. Looking ahead, both inflation and economic activity look likely to pick up some pace in the next few months, weakening the case for... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Currency manipulation” tag would still carry weight A declaration by a US administration that China is a “currency manipulator” may have no immediate consequences but it would open the door to more substantive trade sanctions against China in future. 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update False dawn for property Some commentators have turned optimistic about the outlook for Chinese residential property. We remain of the view that, with inventories still high, a big pick-up in property investment is unlikely... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economy stabilising, on course for weak recovery Today’s data releases provide the strongest signs yet that China’s economy stabilised in Q3, along with glimmers of hope that a recovery began towards the end of the quarter. But we are sceptical that... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Pain of China’s slowdown is spread unevenly Debates over whether China is facing a “hard landing” generally miss the point that an economic slowdown can affect different groups in different ways. Right now, Chinese policymakers seem not too... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports point to continued weakness at end-Q3 The September import data suggest China’s economy was still weak at the end of Q3. By contrast, last month’s exports were unexpectedly strong, as they were for both Korea and Taiwan, with demand from... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Consumption-led rebound remains wishful thinking The apparent strength of tourism and spending during October’s “golden-week” holiday has revived hopes that China could experience a consumer-led rebound. But there is little convincing evidence that... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Inflation in consumer prices was probably little changed in September. But the outlook is for higher inflation over coming months, which will make policymakers more cautious about further stimulus. 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is slower growth here to stay? China’s economic slowdown is the result of policy tightening and weak global demand but it also reflects structural shifts in China’s economy. As a result, expectations for a strong and sustained... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the stimulus real? We can see no sign of a fresh stimulus in the government’s recent announcements that it has approved a large number of infrastructure projects. Most were already expected to go ahead and, while the... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong property still heading for a crash The Hong Kong government has introduced a number of measures to improve housing affordability. We don’t believe these measures will have their intended effect, and that in the short-term property... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Growth expectations edge down The continued weakness in China’s monthly data has prompted us to knock down our forecast for GDP growth this year. Next year is likely to be disappointing too. 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
