China Economics Update China's exporters still shrugging off fast-rising wages For years, the abiding view of China has been of a workshop powered by waves of young migrants able to outcompete workers elsewhere on the basis of low wages. This image is increasingly wide of the... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slow growth in Hong Kong set to continue into 2013 Hong Kong’s economy returned to growth in the third quarter, but the pace of expansion was still very weak. With the global economy likely to remain depressed over the next year, a strong rebound... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New line-up dents but doesn’t derail hopes of reform The unveiling of China’s new leadership in the Great Hall of the People today has dented hopes of economic policy reform. Of the three “reformist” candidates thought to have had a chance of joining... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we worry about pork prices again? A new government scheme to stabilise China’s volatile pork market appears to be succeeding. As a result, the re-emergence of pork-driven inflation that some have started to warn about is unlikely to... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slow loan growth no concern given signs of economic recovery The tepid pace of bank lending revealed in figures released today will not be much of a concern to policymakers given the upbeat tone of recent economic data, including October’s double-digit increase... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the October surprise too good to be true? China’s October activity data provide the strongest signs so far of economic recovery. Given that they have been published while the Party Congress is in session, some sceptics have questioned whether... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are rising wages hurting China's exporters? A further doubling of average incomes this decade, as pledged in the Party Congress today by President Hu Jintao, will probably not undermine China highly-competitive manufacturing sector. 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China's leadership change matters more to EMs than US election The imminent leadership change in China is a more significant event for emerging economies than the re-election of President Obama. The installation of a cohesive Chinese leadership committed to... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) China’s consumer price inflation was stable in October, we believe. Looking ahead, both inflation and economic activity look likely to pick up some pace in the next few months, weakening the case for... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Currency manipulation” tag would still carry weight A declaration by a US administration that China is a “currency manipulator” may have no immediate consequences but it would open the door to more substantive trade sanctions against China in future. 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update False dawn for property Some commentators have turned optimistic about the outlook for Chinese residential property. We remain of the view that, with inventories still high, a big pick-up in property investment is unlikely... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economy stabilising, on course for weak recovery Today’s data releases provide the strongest signs yet that China’s economy stabilised in Q3, along with glimmers of hope that a recovery began towards the end of the quarter. But we are sceptical that... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Pain of China’s slowdown is spread unevenly Debates over whether China is facing a “hard landing” generally miss the point that an economic slowdown can affect different groups in different ways. Right now, Chinese policymakers seem not too... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports point to continued weakness at end-Q3 The September import data suggest China’s economy was still weak at the end of Q3. By contrast, last month’s exports were unexpectedly strong, as they were for both Korea and Taiwan, with demand from... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Consumption-led rebound remains wishful thinking The apparent strength of tourism and spending during October’s “golden-week” holiday has revived hopes that China could experience a consumer-led rebound. But there is little convincing evidence that... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Inflation in consumer prices was probably little changed in September. But the outlook is for higher inflation over coming months, which will make policymakers more cautious about further stimulus. 4th October 2012 · 1 min read