China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2013 Confidence is rising, but business leaders in China are less upbeat about conditions for their own firms than they are about the wider economy. This suggests that sentiment may be running ahead of... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update First thoughts on Premier Li Keqiang Premier Li Keqiang has taken office with pledges to tackle inequality, boost urbanisation and deal with vested interests. These are all major economic concerns. But longstanding China watchers may... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New leadership edging forward with reform Economic reform appears to be getting off to a slow start under the new leadership but moves to reduce government oversight of investment and other business operations suggest that it is at least... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economic rebound may already be stalling The weekend’s data releases suggest that China’s economic rebound is faltering sooner than expected, even by relative pessimists such as ourselves. 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Demand strong from overseas but appears weaker at home China’s exports were far stronger than expected last month. By contrast, import growth remains slow. In particular, the recent acceleration in domestic activity has done little to boost commodity... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb. 13) Inflation will have spiked higher last month because of price rises ahead of Chinese New Year, but it should drop back in March. Looking further ahead, inflation is likely to rise but we think the... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Five issues to watch at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, starts on Tuesday. Expectations, as usual, are low. This year though, with a new leadership keen to project an energetic image... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Housing still on unsustainable path A slowdown in property construction was the main reason that China’s economy slowed last year. Even so, the sector remains on an unsustainable path. It may be years before policymakers can sensibly... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Signs of recovery in Hong Kong, but risks to downside Hong Kong’s economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in Q4, thanks mainly to a pick up in export growth. Prospects for the economy depend largely on the outlook for global demand. As such... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBC tilts towards tightening Global copper mine supply grew at its fastest rate in eight years in the closing months of 2012 and mine output is likely to grow just as quickly this year. This should enable smelters to raise their... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equity rally stutters This is the first edition of a new publication for clients of our China service. The China Markets Monitor will provide a monthly summary of developments in financial markets in mainland China and... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hooked on credit Four years after China’s economy was rescued by a huge loan-fuelled stimulus, its economic growth continues to be shored up by an unsustainable dependence on credit. 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Surge in credit causes headache for policymakers Policymakers will pay little attention to last month’s drop in inflation or the acceleration in exports, given the usual volatility around Chinese New Year. But a surge in off-balance-sheet bank... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) The usual rollercoaster around Chinese New Year will have caused inflation to fall in January before sending it soaring this month. Once the seasonal volatility has faded, current evidence suggests... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Income inequality is an economic as well as social issue Wide income inequality in China is undermining economic stability as well generating concerns about social tensions. 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economy picks up speed, recovery’s durability in doubt Today’s Q4 GDP data confirm the turnaround in China’s economy but they show too that it is reliant on the single engine of investment. Continued policy easing would be needed to prolong the... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
