China Economics Update Surge in credit causes headache for policymakers Policymakers will pay little attention to last month’s drop in inflation or the acceleration in exports, given the usual volatility around Chinese New Year. But a surge in off-balance-sheet bank... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) The usual rollercoaster around Chinese New Year will have caused inflation to fall in January before sending it soaring this month. Once the seasonal volatility has faded, current evidence suggests... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Income inequality is an economic as well as social issue Wide income inequality in China is undermining economic stability as well generating concerns about social tensions. 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economy picks up speed, recovery’s durability in doubt Today’s Q4 GDP data confirm the turnaround in China’s economy but they show too that it is reliant on the single engine of investment. Continued policy easing would be needed to prolong the... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China's share of global FDI rising, not falling We are sceptical that published FDI data tell us much about China’s economic outlook. For what it’s worth though – and contrary to the headlines – today’s figures suggest the China is increasing its... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stalling credit growth points to limited economic rebound There were signs of strengthening developed world demand in China’s latest export data. Stronger growth in China is being reflected in rising imports. But with credit growth levelling off, a strong... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stirring property sector reawakens over-investment fears Property construction in China still needs to slow further to return the real estate sector to a sustainable path. Accordingly, the recent pick-up in investment by developers should not be welcomed... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) December’s data will give us the last “clean” view of inflation before price volatility around Chinese New Year obscures the picture. They are likely to show that consumer price inflation is rising... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q4 2012 Business confidence in China has recovered slightly though it remains subdued. Banks are eager to lend but firms show little appetite for loans. Meanwhile, households are increasingly optimistic and... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong's low unemployment no support for domestic demand Hong Kong’s unemployment rate remains low despite the weak economy, as employers have responded to falling demand by cutting wage growth. The result has been a slowdown in consumption. Even if... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The US fiscal cliff: implications for Asia The nightmare scenario of the US Congress failing to reach a deal on the fiscal cliff would see growth in Asia’s most trade-dependent countries slow by up to 1 percentage point in 2013. 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update First test of new leadership's appetite for reform The release later this month of government proposals to reduce income inequality will provide early evidence of whether a change of leadership in Beijing has given new momentum to economic reform. The... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Signs economic recovery is faltering Today’s disappointing trade data have added to our doubts about the sustainability of China’s rebound. The weekend’s figures on investment and industrial production were more encouraging but they... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) China’s consumer price inflation is picking up and could spike much higher around February’s Chinese New Year holiday. It will be higher than today once that seasonal distortion passes, but we don’t... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Recovery to fade in 2013 The government is likely to set a low target for growth next year that the economy will beat. But expectations that China’s growth will continue to accelerate through 2013 are likely to be... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBC foreign exchange purchases set to resume Purchases of foreign exchange by the People’s Bank have slowed to a crawl this year. We believe this is a pause in, rather than the end of, China’s era of massive foreign reserve accumulation. 29th November 2012 · 1 min read