China Economics Update Land reform set to boost rural incomes The Party leadership has given its blessing to land reforms that should shift more income to rural households. Change will happen slowly but the result should be a boost to consumer spending. 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Reform package exceeds expectations The underwhelming Communiqué released after the Third Plenum on Tuesday raised big questions about whether the leadership had been able to get backing for a meaningful package of reforms. On the basis... 15th November 2013 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Subdued recovery in Hong Kong Another disappointing set of GDP figures for Hong Kong has tempered hopes for a strong revival of growth. A pick-up in global trade flows should help over the coming year, but we expect Hong Kong's... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No “Master Plan” so far from Third Plenum President Xi raised expectations ahead of the Third Plenum with talk of a “Master Plan” for reform. We should learn more in the days ahead but, based on what has been revealed so far, the decisions... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update State sector pulls back With output growth stable and inflation contained, October’s data signalled two key developments: a pull back in investment by the state sector, particularly in infrastructure, and a slowdown in... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Positive signs on foreign demand Strong imports of industrial commodities last month suggest that China’s investment led rebound was holding up relatively well early in Q4. However, with policymakers again focussing on risks from... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How big a problem is local government debt? China’s local governments have taken on unhealthy amounts of debt over the last few years but, unlike many, we do not think this should rank among policymakers’ primary concerns. Instead, we would... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov 13.) After rising through the summer, consumer price inflation looks set to be stable over the rest of the year. With policymakers signalling renewed efforts to rein in credit growth, inflation should... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s equities fall, market rates rise China's stock market fell in late October as money-market rates surged. A rerun of June's cash crunch is not on the cards, but there is increasing evidence that the policy stance is shifting back... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update As good as it gets? Today’s GDP data were squarely in line with expectations. The more interesting development was the slowdown in infrastructure investment in September amid broader signs that the momentum of the... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How long will the Hong Kong peg last? The Hong Kong dollar peg was introduced 30 years ago this week. Although the peg creates a number of problems, it remains the best option. We expect it to remain in place for many more years. 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People’s Bank accelerates its foreign exchange purchases The People’s Bank (PBC) has been purchasing foreign exchange at a frantic rate in recent weeks,underlining again how reluctant policymakers are to leave the renminbi in the hands of market forces... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Welcome slowdown in credit, but inflation rising The slew of September data released in the last few days reveal a welcome slowdown in broad credit growth and a sharp pick-up in inflation. The latter may look alarming, but on closer inspection it... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Consumer price inflation probably rebounded last month, thanks to a rise in vegetable price inflation. In general though, inflation in most areas is stable, with no sign that the economy’s summer... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can Shanghai become a global financial centre? The underwhelming launch of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ) has led many to reassess the likelihood of the zone becoming a test bed for far-reaching policy reform any time soon. If anything, the... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s market rally fades China’s financial markets rallied in early September, but momentum has since faded. Meanwhile, the renminbi has remained stable. 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
