China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul 13.) Continued increases in pork and vegetable prices look likely to have driven consumer price inflation higher in July. Further rises probably lie ahead. 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Interest rate liberalisation hurts financial stocks While the Hang Seng index has rebounded significantly in July, equity prices in Shanghai have changed little, although the cash crunch has passed. Meanwhile, the renminbi has been kept stable. 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China suffering from deflation? If China has dropped into deflation, as many now claim, one implication is that stimulus would succeed in driving a sustainable economic rebound. But evidence of deflation is weak, at best. This is... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A welcome light on China’s government debt China’s forthcoming audit of government debt will shine a welcome light on a murky part of the economy. Based on what we know at present, the overall government debt situation has actually improved in... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi set to climb further this year and beyond We are deeply sceptical of the argument that the renminbi now needs to weaken to reach its market value. On the contrary, we continue to expect it to edge higher this year and make further gains in... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imbalances widen, despite slowdown With today’s GDP data squarely in line with consensus expectations we would focus on two other points, one encouraging, the other less so. The good news is that the labour market remains healthy,with... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is the government’s bottom line for growth? Confusion over where the government’s “bottom line” for GDP growth lies suggests that officials may be less fixated on meeting the annual growth target than many outside observers think. Their main... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Export slump points to faltering demand China’s exporters in June had their worst single month since the depths of the financial crisis. Efforts to crack down on illicit cross-border capital flows may have played a large part, but the... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Consumer price inflation probably picked up in June. It is likely to continue rising in coming months but not by enough to cause alarm, given the state of the economy and the likelihood that credit... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China embraces reform – and slower growth China’s policymakers finally seem willing to tackle the economy’s structural imbalances. This reduces the threat of an abrupt slowdown in GDP growth further down the line, but it also means that China... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Financial stocks lead slump Equity prices in Shanghai have fallen sharply since early June. The primary cause is the cash crunch in China’s interbank market rather than increasing concerns about Fed’s policy. Meanwhile, the... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Reckless policymaking hints at appetite for reform There are some positives to be drawn from China’s cash crunch. The episode is arguably the strongest sign yet that the leadership is willing to suffer short-term economic pain if necessary to achieve... 24th June 2013 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q2 2013 Businesses remain relatively confident about the economy overall but, when it comes to their own situation, they have recently turned much more downbeat. Meanwhile, Chinese households are as reluctant... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Cash crunch signals policymakers’ credit concerns Short-lived cash crunches in China are not unusual. But the fact that the People’s Bank has allowed the current crunch to persist so long when economic growth remains weak signals the depth of its... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rebound remains elusive The key message from China’s May data is that there is no clear evidence of an economic rebound getting underway. Most of the commentary has focused on the impact on exports of more stringent controls... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Consumer price inflation was probably little changed in May, but it is likely to pick up over the rest of the year as pork prices look to have bottomed out. 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
