China Economics Update Growth in Hong Kong set for gradual recovery Hong Kong GDP figures for the second quarter show the economy remains subdued. Over the next couple of years, with the global economy set to stage a gradual recovery, Hong Kong should see a modest... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Easing of one-child policy unlikely to alter growth outlook There is growing speculation that China’s one-child policy could be eased later this year. However, the economic impact of any change in the policy is likely to be relatively small. 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Chinese recovery built on weak foundations Today’s data releases provide further evidence that China’s economy is improving. However, the rebound has been driven by investment spending and fuelled by rapid credit growth earlier this year. A... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Trade data add to evidence of renewed pick-up in investment The rebound in both China’s exports and imports in July was bigger than most had expected. On the export side, there are signs that foreign demand is recovering.Meanwhile, the import data provide... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul 13.) Continued increases in pork and vegetable prices look likely to have driven consumer price inflation higher in July. Further rises probably lie ahead. 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Interest rate liberalisation hurts financial stocks While the Hang Seng index has rebounded significantly in July, equity prices in Shanghai have changed little, although the cash crunch has passed. Meanwhile, the renminbi has been kept stable. 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China suffering from deflation? If China has dropped into deflation, as many now claim, one implication is that stimulus would succeed in driving a sustainable economic rebound. But evidence of deflation is weak, at best. This is... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A welcome light on China’s government debt China’s forthcoming audit of government debt will shine a welcome light on a murky part of the economy. Based on what we know at present, the overall government debt situation has actually improved in... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi set to climb further this year and beyond We are deeply sceptical of the argument that the renminbi now needs to weaken to reach its market value. On the contrary, we continue to expect it to edge higher this year and make further gains in... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imbalances widen, despite slowdown With today’s GDP data squarely in line with consensus expectations we would focus on two other points, one encouraging, the other less so. The good news is that the labour market remains healthy,with... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is the government’s bottom line for growth? Confusion over where the government’s “bottom line” for GDP growth lies suggests that officials may be less fixated on meeting the annual growth target than many outside observers think. Their main... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Export slump points to faltering demand China’s exporters in June had their worst single month since the depths of the financial crisis. Efforts to crack down on illicit cross-border capital flows may have played a large part, but the... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Consumer price inflation probably picked up in June. It is likely to continue rising in coming months but not by enough to cause alarm, given the state of the economy and the likelihood that credit... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China embraces reform – and slower growth China’s policymakers finally seem willing to tackle the economy’s structural imbalances. This reduces the threat of an abrupt slowdown in GDP growth further down the line, but it also means that China... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Financial stocks lead slump Equity prices in Shanghai have fallen sharply since early June. The primary cause is the cash crunch in China’s interbank market rather than increasing concerns about Fed’s policy. Meanwhile, the... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Reckless policymaking hints at appetite for reform There are some positives to be drawn from China’s cash crunch. The episode is arguably the strongest sign yet that the leadership is willing to suffer short-term economic pain if necessary to achieve... 24th June 2013 · 4 mins read