China Economics Update People’s Bank signals credit risks remain prime concern In the debate about whether to prioritise shoring up GDP growth or dealing with structural concerns, the latest monetary policy report from the People’s Bank suggests that it is firmly in the latter... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Outlook hazy, but growth still appears to be slowing The period around Chinese New Year is always a difficult time for anyone trying to make sense of what’s happening in China’s economy. It will be another couple of months before we get a clear view of... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A bitter end to the year of the snake January was another disappointing month for China’s equities. The weakness was largely due to problems at home rather than overseas. 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What damage would a trust default do? A last minute rescue package allowed investors in the troubled “Credit Equals Gold No. 1” trust product to recoup the principal and the bulk of expected interest from their investment this week. But... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shrinking workforce not a major growth risk Contrary to some headlines this week, the ongoing decline in China’s working age population does not pose a major threat to China’s medium-term growth prospects. What matters is what happens to worker... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slowdown continuing into 2014 Today’s GDP figures confirm that China’s economy slowed last quarter, with the monthly activity data showing that momentum was still slipping in December. In particular, the infrastructure investment... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why the hukou matters less than many think There has been some disappointment since the Third Plenum that the Party is not moving faster to reform the hukou household registration system. This may not matter much for the economy – the... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update First appearances deceptive At first sight, today’s trade data from China imply that export demand has weakened while domestic demand has picked up speed. But once we take into account previous distortions in the export data... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Unresolved tension in policy clouds outlook for 2014 The ongoing slowdown in China's economy is bringing into focus a tension in the government's objectives that is likely to be a key source of uncertainty in the months ahead. With the GDP growth target... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) Inflation appears to have finished 2013 on a subdued note. Policymakers’ latest moves to tighten the regulation of shadow banking along with other measures intended to rein in credit growth should... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Large-scale currency intervention set to continue Pledges by the People's Bank to end currency intervention are likely to crumble in the face of sustained pressure on the renminbi to appreciate. We think that China's central bank could accumulate... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s equities slump, market rates surge China’s interbank rates have surged this week on the back of seasonal tightness in liquidity that has been compounded by uncertainty about policymakers’ intentions. But with the People’s Bank today... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q4 2013 Business sentiment about China’s broad economic outlook recovered this quarter but most firms remain downbeat about their own prospects. Bankers are relaxed about the current state of monetary policy... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People’s Bank edges forward with rate liberalisation There has been a rush of interesting data over the past couple of days suggesting that inflation pressures are low and domestic demand is faltering, though exports were less impressive than might... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) The acceleration in consumer price inflation that started in early summer looks near to an end. With policymakers focussing on reining in credit, and few signs of underlying price pressures, we expect... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2014 China’s leaders are gathering again in Beijing, this time to discuss priorities for 2014. In this month’s China Watch we outline our views on what to expect on growth, monetary policy and reform. 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
