China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q4 2013 Business sentiment about China’s broad economic outlook recovered this quarter but most firms remain downbeat about their own prospects. Bankers are relaxed about the current state of monetary policy... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People’s Bank edges forward with rate liberalisation There has been a rush of interesting data over the past couple of days suggesting that inflation pressures are low and domestic demand is faltering, though exports were less impressive than might... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) The acceleration in consumer price inflation that started in early summer looks near to an end. With policymakers focussing on reining in credit, and few signs of underlying price pressures, we expect... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2014 China’s leaders are gathering again in Beijing, this time to discuss priorities for 2014. In this month’s China Watch we outline our views on what to expect on growth, monetary policy and reform. 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s equities rebound, bond yields surge China’s stock market rebounded strongly in the second half of November, as the comprehensive reform plan released following the Plenum seems to have eased fears of a sharp slowdown in the economy... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How will we know if the Plenum reforms are on track? The Third Plenum provided an impressive statement of reform intentions but it changed nothing on the ground. What signposts can we look for to gauge how rapidly new policies are being implemented? 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What does the Plenum mean for China’s growth? The reform package agreed at the Third Plenum is unlikely to have a big impact on China's immediate economic outlook but, if implemented effectively, it should allow China to sustain stronger growth... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Land reform set to boost rural incomes The Party leadership has given its blessing to land reforms that should shift more income to rural households. Change will happen slowly but the result should be a boost to consumer spending. 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Reform package exceeds expectations The underwhelming Communiqué released after the Third Plenum on Tuesday raised big questions about whether the leadership had been able to get backing for a meaningful package of reforms. On the basis... 15th November 2013 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Subdued recovery in Hong Kong Another disappointing set of GDP figures for Hong Kong has tempered hopes for a strong revival of growth. A pick-up in global trade flows should help over the coming year, but we expect Hong Kong's... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No “Master Plan” so far from Third Plenum President Xi raised expectations ahead of the Third Plenum with talk of a “Master Plan” for reform. We should learn more in the days ahead but, based on what has been revealed so far, the decisions... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update State sector pulls back With output growth stable and inflation contained, October’s data signalled two key developments: a pull back in investment by the state sector, particularly in infrastructure, and a slowdown in... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Positive signs on foreign demand Strong imports of industrial commodities last month suggest that China’s investment led rebound was holding up relatively well early in Q4. However, with policymakers again focussing on risks from... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How big a problem is local government debt? China’s local governments have taken on unhealthy amounts of debt over the last few years but, unlike many, we do not think this should rank among policymakers’ primary concerns. Instead, we would... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov 13.) After rising through the summer, consumer price inflation looks set to be stable over the rest of the year. With policymakers signalling renewed efforts to rein in credit growth, inflation should... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s equities fall, market rates rise China's stock market fell in late October as money-market rates surged. A rerun of June's cash crunch is not on the cards, but there is increasing evidence that the policy stance is shifting back... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read