China Economics Update Further RMB weakening tests the PBOC’s nerves After large-scale intervention succeeded in weakening the renminbi and rattling many investors, there are tentative signs that the People’s Bank is now trying to introduce some stability. 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s tourism deficit offsetting surplus in goods trade Outbound tourism is becoming an important factor in China’s international payments balance, contributing to a deficit in services trade that is partially offsetting the goods trade surplus. 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A broad RRR cut is unlikely to come soon Yesterday’s targeted cut in the reserve requirement ratio should not be read as a signal of a broader shift towards monetary loosening. The last thing that policymakers want to see is another credit... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fears of a hard-landing overdone The marginally stronger-than-consensus Q1 GDP data and broad stability in March growth figures suggest that concerns over the state of China’s economy are overdone. The economy is likely to weaken... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A new route for foreigners to invest in China’s equities The introduction of a new scheme allowing global investors to access Shanghai’s equity market is China’s latest step to relax controls on its cross-border capital flows. The announcement gave a brief... 11th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr.) Seasonal volatility in food inflation continues to cause swings in consumer price inflation. However, with broader price pressures subdued and little sign of major policy loosening on the horizon, the... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rehashed spending commitments don’t equal stimulus Policymakers everywhere have to be seen to respond to economic concerns. But the measures unveiled in Beijing last night are simply reheated versions of previous announcements that shouldn’t change... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Second bond default signals normalisation, not crisis Reports today of another small bond default in China are a sign of the growing maturity of the country’s bond market. Still, while investors are now paying more attention to credit risks, it is not... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Liquidity tightens again The renminbi weakened against the dollar in March for a second month in a row but it is still one of the emerging world’s better performing currencies over the past year. Meanwhile, a renewed... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers signal preference for “fine-tuning” over stimulus With the People's Bank pushing interbank rates higher and senior figures ruling out significant fiscal and monetary loosening, market hopes of a stimulus package for China are likely to be... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Online spending giving hidden boost to retail sales By omitting rapidly-growing online sales, China’s retail sales data may be exaggerating how much spending has slowed in recent years. 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q1 2014 Businesses in China are not too worried at present about the state of the wider economy, but they are extremely concerned about the conditions facing their own firms. By contrast, Chinese households... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wider currency band doesn't shift fundamentals The People's Bank (PBOC) is keen to signal that this weekend's widening of the renminbi's trading band means that the currency's days as a "one-way bet" are over. But fundamentals still point to a... 16th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are China’s exporters struggling to compete? The recent slide of the renminbi and February’s weak exports have been linked by some to a supposed loss of competitiveness in China’s export sector. In fact, despite rapid wage growth and trend... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Premier Li shrugs off slowdown concerns Today’s weaker-than-expected data won’t do anything to settle investors’ nerves about the state of China’s economy. Hopes for an imminent policy response will also have been dented by Premier Li’s... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Online funds pushing interest rate liberalisation forward Interest rate liberalisation is happening faster than seemed likely even a few months ago as the sudden take-off of online money market funds has forced opponents of liberalisation to rethink their... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
