China Economics Update More volatility ahead for the renminbi The recent abrupt fall in the renminbi is best seen as a salvo in a battle between policymakers who believe that China’s currency is close to its fair value and market participants who don’t... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would Hong Kong benefit from higher interest rates? Concerns are mounting that higher interest rates in the US could cause Hong Kong’s economy to slow sharply. With growth picking up and with little slack in the labour market, tighter monetary policy... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fiscal drag to add to growth concerns Next month’s budget is likely to be neutral for growth. But on a broader definition that accounts for off-budget activity, the fiscal stance this year will probably be a major drag on the economy. 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Chinese New Year usually delivers a spike in consumer price inflation. This year though, prices have remained unusually subdued. Inflation is unlikely to be of much concern to policymakers at least... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People’s Bank signals credit risks remain prime concern In the debate about whether to prioritise shoring up GDP growth or dealing with structural concerns, the latest monetary policy report from the People’s Bank suggests that it is firmly in the latter... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Outlook hazy, but growth still appears to be slowing The period around Chinese New Year is always a difficult time for anyone trying to make sense of what’s happening in China’s economy. It will be another couple of months before we get a clear view of... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A bitter end to the year of the snake January was another disappointing month for China’s equities. The weakness was largely due to problems at home rather than overseas. 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What damage would a trust default do? A last minute rescue package allowed investors in the troubled “Credit Equals Gold No. 1” trust product to recoup the principal and the bulk of expected interest from their investment this week. But... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shrinking workforce not a major growth risk Contrary to some headlines this week, the ongoing decline in China’s working age population does not pose a major threat to China’s medium-term growth prospects. What matters is what happens to worker... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slowdown continuing into 2014 Today’s GDP figures confirm that China’s economy slowed last quarter, with the monthly activity data showing that momentum was still slipping in December. In particular, the infrastructure investment... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why the hukou matters less than many think There has been some disappointment since the Third Plenum that the Party is not moving faster to reform the hukou household registration system. This may not matter much for the economy – the... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update First appearances deceptive At first sight, today’s trade data from China imply that export demand has weakened while domestic demand has picked up speed. But once we take into account previous distortions in the export data... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Unresolved tension in policy clouds outlook for 2014 The ongoing slowdown in China's economy is bringing into focus a tension in the government's objectives that is likely to be a key source of uncertainty in the months ahead. With the GDP growth target... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) Inflation appears to have finished 2013 on a subdued note. Policymakers’ latest moves to tighten the regulation of shadow banking along with other measures intended to rein in credit growth should... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Large-scale currency intervention set to continue Pledges by the People's Bank to end currency intervention are likely to crumble in the face of sustained pressure on the renminbi to appreciate. We think that China's central bank could accumulate... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s equities slump, market rates surge China’s interbank rates have surged this week on the back of seasonal tightness in liquidity that has been compounded by uncertainty about policymakers’ intentions. But with the People’s Bank today... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read