China Economics Update Equities surge following rate cut The recent benchmark rate cut triggered sharp gains in China’s stock markets in the last week of November. Meanwhile, although trading volumes in the newly-launched Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China switches tack with rate cut boost for larger firms China’s rate cuts will ease financing strains, particularly for large firms, but the impact on GDP growth is likely to be small. There is absolutely no reason to believe that concerns over the level... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How big a deal is the Shanghai Connect scheme? The Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme has the potential to lead to a huge increase in capital flows both into and out of China. But it will start slowly and be scaled up only gradually. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to remain low – but positive Inflation is at a four-year low and looks set to remain lower than we had previously anticipated. But we don’t think deflation is the threat that some believe or that policymakers should respond to... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China Watch - Labour market remaining resilient despite property gloom The outlook for China’s economy and for economic policy will be determined by what happens to the property sector and to employment. Despite the latest increase in support for property, the outlook... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Government support for property ignites equity rally Government promises of support for the property sector triggered sharp gains in China’s stock markets in the last week of October. Meanwhile, appreciation expectations appear to be returning for the... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports as well as exports look suspicious Most of the headlines questioning China’s September trade data have focused on anomalies on the export side. But China’s imports also seem to have been distorted, which may be a sign that firms are... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fourth Plenum signals next phase of anti-graft efforts It is tempting to dismiss the Communist Party’s talk of boosting the “rule of law” in China as simply hot air. Beneath the rhetoric though, the focus is on institutionalising the ongoing anti... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will falling house prices hurt consumption? There are several strong reasons – not least the evidence of previous downturns – to believe that continued falls in China’s property prices will have little impact on household spending. The risks... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Occupy Central” not the only headwind to Hong Kong’s economy The demonstrations in Hong Kong are taking their toll on the economy, with the retail sector so far bearing the brunt. But even if the protests die down, the ongoing corruption crackdown in China and... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Inflation looks to have remained low in September, with weak commodity prices and a cooling housing market helping to keep broad price pressures subdued. We see slightly higher inflation ahead, due to... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is weak credit demand undermining monetary policy? There has been some suggestion that policymakers are struggling to stimulate lending because firms have little appetite to borrow. Credit demand does appear to have softened. But there is no evidence... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much does Hong Kong matter to China? The economic fallout from a further escalation of the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong would not be limited to the territory. Indeed, it is important not to underestimate the potential costs to... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Protests overshadow equity opening in Hong Kong October’s launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme has been eagerly awaited since it was announced earlier in the year. Now it risks being overshadowed by political unrest that raises... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What next for Hong Kong? With thousands of pro-democracy protestors blockading the streets of Hong Kong’s main business district, the territory’s political crisis is showing no sign of dying down. The economy, which is... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would policy change under a new PBOC governor? People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan is once again rumoured to be on the verge of being replaced. We are sceptical of suggestions that Mr Zhou has lost out in a power struggle. A new governor might... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
