China Economics Update How much does Hong Kong matter to China? The economic fallout from a further escalation of the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong would not be limited to the territory. Indeed, it is important not to underestimate the potential costs to... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Protests overshadow equity opening in Hong Kong October’s launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme has been eagerly awaited since it was announced earlier in the year. Now it risks being overshadowed by political unrest that raises... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What next for Hong Kong? With thousands of pro-democracy protestors blockading the streets of Hong Kong’s main business district, the territory’s political crisis is showing no sign of dying down. The economy, which is... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would policy change under a new PBOC governor? People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan is once again rumoured to be on the verge of being replaced. We are sceptical of suggestions that Mr Zhou has lost out in a power struggle. A new governor might... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2014 Perhaps the most notable development in today’s quarterly surveys from the People’s Bank is the sharp drop in reported loan demand but there are some more positive developments too. Firms report... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Latest move by PBOC is not a policy shift The general impression seems to be that the latest liquidity injections by the People’s Bank are a form of stealth stimulus. But these are in fact run-of-the-mill operations designed to smooth... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Healthy labour market keeping policymakers calm Premier Li Keqiang’s comments last week prioritising reform over stimulus have taken on added significance in the light of the weekend’s weak activity data. Policymakers are aware that efforts to... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Productivity has not gone into reverse We are sceptical of recent claims that productivity across China’s economy has started to fall. If it were true, we’d be slashing our medium-term growth forecasts. But the reality is not so dire. 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) After another month of stable inflation in August, we expect rising pork prices and utility price reforms to push inflation higher over the coming quarters. But easing pressure on housing costs, weak... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New light on government borrowing Reforms just agreed should drastically reduce off-budget borrowing by local governments and make it much easier to monitor the build-up of government debt. These moves are long overdue but the fact... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi regaining lost ground Renminbi appreciation is back in full swing but upwards momentum in Chinese equities appears to have faltered in August following a string of weak data releases. 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update On the cusp of another slowdown? China’s economy continues to face headwinds, particularly from the property sector. But the key lesson from recent months is that policymakers have plenty of tools at their disposal to shore up growth... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong's economy should rebound from Q2 drop Hong Kong's economy contracted in the second quarter, due to weak domestic demand and services exports, but an expected pick-up in the global economy should underpin a rebound over the coming quarters... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A softer start to Q3 Today’s data on lending, output and spending for July suggest that, after a strong Q2, China’s economy slowed at the start of Q3. Policymakers are likely to continue to provide targeted support to... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline inflation looks set to remain roughly stable in the near term. Although it is likely to rise again over the next few quarters on the back of rising pork prices and an increase in utility... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shanghai equities on a tear Equities in China have soared in recent days as sentiment about the economy’s prospects has warmed. But we don’t expect the rally to be sustained. 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
