China Economics Update Will falling house prices hurt consumption? There are several strong reasons – not least the evidence of previous downturns – to believe that continued falls in China’s property prices will have little impact on household spending. The risks... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Occupy Central” not the only headwind to Hong Kong’s economy The demonstrations in Hong Kong are taking their toll on the economy, with the retail sector so far bearing the brunt. But even if the protests die down, the ongoing corruption crackdown in China and... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Inflation looks to have remained low in September, with weak commodity prices and a cooling housing market helping to keep broad price pressures subdued. We see slightly higher inflation ahead, due to... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is weak credit demand undermining monetary policy? There has been some suggestion that policymakers are struggling to stimulate lending because firms have little appetite to borrow. Credit demand does appear to have softened. But there is no evidence... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much does Hong Kong matter to China? The economic fallout from a further escalation of the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong would not be limited to the territory. Indeed, it is important not to underestimate the potential costs to... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Protests overshadow equity opening in Hong Kong October’s launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme has been eagerly awaited since it was announced earlier in the year. Now it risks being overshadowed by political unrest that raises... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What next for Hong Kong? With thousands of pro-democracy protestors blockading the streets of Hong Kong’s main business district, the territory’s political crisis is showing no sign of dying down. The economy, which is... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would policy change under a new PBOC governor? People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan is once again rumoured to be on the verge of being replaced. We are sceptical of suggestions that Mr Zhou has lost out in a power struggle. A new governor might... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2014 Perhaps the most notable development in today’s quarterly surveys from the People’s Bank is the sharp drop in reported loan demand but there are some more positive developments too. Firms report... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Latest move by PBOC is not a policy shift The general impression seems to be that the latest liquidity injections by the People’s Bank are a form of stealth stimulus. But these are in fact run-of-the-mill operations designed to smooth... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Healthy labour market keeping policymakers calm Premier Li Keqiang’s comments last week prioritising reform over stimulus have taken on added significance in the light of the weekend’s weak activity data. Policymakers are aware that efforts to... 15th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Productivity has not gone into reverse We are sceptical of recent claims that productivity across China’s economy has started to fall. If it were true, we’d be slashing our medium-term growth forecasts. But the reality is not so dire. 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) After another month of stable inflation in August, we expect rising pork prices and utility price reforms to push inflation higher over the coming quarters. But easing pressure on housing costs, weak... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New light on government borrowing Reforms just agreed should drastically reduce off-budget borrowing by local governments and make it much easier to monitor the build-up of government debt. These moves are long overdue but the fact... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi regaining lost ground Renminbi appreciation is back in full swing but upwards momentum in Chinese equities appears to have faltered in August following a string of weak data releases. 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update On the cusp of another slowdown? China’s economy continues to face headwinds, particularly from the property sector. But the key lesson from recent months is that policymakers have plenty of tools at their disposal to shore up growth... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read