China Economics Update Outbound FDI won't eclipse inward FDI any time soon Contrary to what is widely believed, China should continue to attract positive net foreign direct investment inflows for the foreseeable future, which should help spur further renminbi appreciation. 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Uptick in inflation likely to reverse soon After edging up in March, inflation is set to ease again – although remain positive – in coming months before rebounding in the second half of the year. 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers still have plenty of ammunition Growth looks likely to have slowed sharply in Q1, in spite of recent cuts to the required reserve ratio and benchmark interest rates. This has raised concerns that policymakers are now struggling to... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Chinese equities surge to seven-year high Chinese equity markets surged over the past month to the highest in more than seven years, with sentiment boosted by growing expectations for further policy support. Meanwhile, the renminbi has... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2015 Business sentiment has deteriorated this quarter however there has been a pick-up in reported loan demand, perhaps spurred by recent policy easing. Meanwhile, fewer households believe house prices are... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Low birth rate won’t derail growth China’s couples have responded less ardently than many had expected to relaxation of the one-child policy. But we shouldn’t be too worried about the impact on economic growth. 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What impact would deposit rate liberalisation have? China is moving closer to full liberalisation of bank deposit rates. Households should benefit from higher returns while banks will find themselves squeezed. But some of the hoped-for gains from... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Bumps in the road but no fiscal cliff Yesterday's budget left us none the wiser about how policymakers plan to manage the abrupt halt in off-budget financing that new rules are imposing on local governments this year. There could be some... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update February bounce in inflation likely to be short-lived After a bounce in February, inflation in China looks likely to drift lower in coming months – but remain positive, we think – before rebounding in the second half of the year. 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress The opening day of the National People’s Congress leaves us upbeat that the government will push ahead with reforms and make further progress in rebalancing the economy away from investment, even if... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rate cut alone won't boost lending The People's Bank has cut benchmark rates in order to help some indebted firms cope with the rise in real borrowing costs that has resulted from lower inflation. But the central bank still appears to... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress The unveiling of a new, lower GDP growth target at the National People’s Congress would be an encouraging sign that the government is facing up to the continued slowdown in China’s sustainable rate of... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Funding costs set to fall Market interest rates rose over the past month despite a required reserve ratio cut and repeated liquidity injections by the People’s Bank. We expect conditions to ease in coming weeks as demand for... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong set for rebound in the year of the sheep Hong Kong’s government has unveiled a budget that should help boost growth this year. There are other reasons to be optimistic about the outlook too, even though today’s GDP data confirmed that growth... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could Hong Kong survive a property market collapse? Property prices in Hong Kong have risen to record highs on the back of accommodative monetarypolicy in the US and strong demand from mainland China. With the Federal Reserve set to tightenpolicy this... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we fear deflation in China? The slide in inflation in China, as elsewhere, has been driven primarily by commodity price falls due to increases in global supply. It is unambiguously positive for China’s economy. Evidence that... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
