China Economics Update Three reasons why growth should hold up in coming quarters Sentiment about the economic outlook for China has darkened again, with the equity market debacle casting a shadow. But we see three reasons to be relatively positive about prospects for growth in the... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China set for further widening of renminbi band China may be on the cusp of again widening the renminbi’s trading band with the dollar. The lesson of previous similar moves is that they have next to no impact on the medium-term path of the currency... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policy support to counter growth risks from property, equities While the support to growth last quarter from surging equity turnover and rebounding property sales will fade before long, we think that policy support will help limit the downside risks to growth. 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Longstanding error still exaggerating GDP growth China’s statistics bureau responded today to our argument that glitches in the way it calculates GDP have caused it to overstate growth in recent quarters. It has not laid our doubts to rest. 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Growth stabilises on brokerage boom, policy easing Q2’s stronger-than-consensus GDP growth partly reflects an unsustainable surge in financial sector activity that will prove short-lived. Even so, there are plenty of positive signs on broader economic... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why stock market gyrations don’t affect consumption With only a small and relatively wealthy portion of Chinese households exposed to the stock market, we aren’t particularly concerned about the impact of recent big falls in equity prices on... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation picking up We expect inflation to have risen in June and for further increases in months ahead to quash any lingering concerns over deflation. 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Leadership rattled but not reversing course on reform The response to the equity market collapse shows that officials have been rattled by a clear policy failure. But it doesn’t signal an about-turn on reform. 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China puts faith in market meddling China’s leadership has doubled down on its efforts to prop up equity prices because it believes that its own credibility is now coupled to continued gains on the markets. 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Uptick in sales won’t spark property revival Strong sales and rebounding prices have raised hopes that China’s property sector is on the cusp of a turnaround. But those expecting a return to the rapid rates of construction growth seen over the... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Echoes of 2007 China’s equity markets ended a nerve-shredding month with a large bounce in the final hours of trading today. There are echoes of the bubble in 2007 and 2008 when prices swung wildly in both... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What can policymakers do now? The failure of Saturday’s policy moves to lift equity prices for more than a few minutes at the start of trading today has focused attention on what else policymakers might do to support the markets... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economic downside from equity collapse underappreciated A “best case” scenario is that a continued equity collapse would knock a percentage point off China’s GDP growth simply by cooling currently overheated financial sector activity. But the rapid... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Scrapping the loan-to-deposit ratio won’t boost bank lending A new proposal to do away with the loan-to-deposit ratio won’t relax the primary constraints on bank lending. It should, however, mean that a greater share of lending is directed towards smaller and... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q2 2015 China’s banks are reporting a deterioration in loan demand that raises questions about the effectiveness of recent policy loosening. We put more weight on actual lending, which has remained strong... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Severe demographic headwinds to hold back Hong Kong Hong Kong has both the highest life expectancy and the lowest birth rate in the world. One consequence is that Hong Kong’s working age population is set to decline by more than that of any other... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
