China Economics Update Fading outflows ease pressure on renminbi Capital outflows from China appear to have eased while the trade surplus is at an all-time high. As a result, downward pressure on the renminbi has dissipated. We suspect, contrary to the analyst... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Deflation fears set to fade as broad price pressures rise Headline inflation is likely to have edged down in October due to a fall in food price inflation. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures appear to be picking up. Looking ahead, we... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The implications for China of deposit rate liberalisation When the PBOC cut benchmark interest rates late last month, it also removed the regulatory ceiling on banks’ deposit rates. This final step in liberalising interest rates came sooner than many had... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Attention shifts to bonds as equities recover Chinese equities broke a four-month losing streak in October. Meanwhile, a contraction in spreads for corporate bonds has sparked fears that a bubble is building. But there is little that looks likely... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Plenum fails to resolve tension between reform and growth goals A communique released after the conclusion of the Fifth Plenum provides a glimpse at the contents of the upcoming Five-Year Plan. It suggests that policymakers are not wavering on their reform... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Abolition of one-child policy does not alter growth outlook The abolition of China’s controversial one-child policy may have grabbed plenty of headlines, but the economic impact of the move will be small. 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stimulus, plus a dash of reform The People’s Bank has delivered another jolt of stimulus in the form of cuts to both benchmark interest rates and the required reserve ratio. Deposit rates have also now been fully liberalised, an... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Service sector activity looks healthy despite data concerns Although we think the official GDP figures overstate growth, we believe that it is primarily industrial growth that is exaggerated and are more willing to take the strength in services at face value. 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Official GDP data set to remain political tool We shouldn’t expect China to have a statistical system as robust as those in the developed world. But the problems in China go beyond those normally found in an emerging economy. The biggest is that... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Price pressures to rise further A seasonal slide in fruit and vegetable prices may have temporarily pulled down consumer price inflation last month. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures appear to be picking up... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Making sense of the official GDP data The official GDP figures are likely to show a small slowdown in China’s growth rate in Q3 – and also to be greeted with a large amount of scepticism. We’d put more weight on the details of the GDP... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2015 The latest surveys of banks, companies and households in China show a marked deterioration in sentiment about the economy although measures of business profits and orders and of the labour market have... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equity markets find their footing, but rebound unlikely After a tumultuous few months, Chinese stock markets stabilised ahead of a week-long recess for the Golden Week holidays. Meanwhile, market interest rates remain near record lows and the PBOC appears... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shanghai-London Stock Connect, more hype than substance It is likely to be a long time before any “Shanghai-London Stock Connect” scheme gets off the groundand even when it does the impact will be small. 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Revised GDP data as open to question as before China’s statistics bureau last week announced changes to how its GDP figures are compiled. In principle, the shift should improve the precision of the data. In practice, the changes to historical real... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update SOE reform plan falls short China’s latest proposals to shake-up state-owned industry are underwhelming. We expect the economy to continue growing at decent rates over the years ahead, but believe this will happen in spite of... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
