China Economics Update Service sector activity looks healthy despite data concerns Although we think the official GDP figures overstate growth, we believe that it is primarily industrial growth that is exaggerated and are more willing to take the strength in services at face value. 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Official GDP data set to remain political tool We shouldn’t expect China to have a statistical system as robust as those in the developed world. But the problems in China go beyond those normally found in an emerging economy. The biggest is that... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Price pressures to rise further A seasonal slide in fruit and vegetable prices may have temporarily pulled down consumer price inflation last month. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures appear to be picking up... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Making sense of the official GDP data The official GDP figures are likely to show a small slowdown in China’s growth rate in Q3 – and also to be greeted with a large amount of scepticism. We’d put more weight on the details of the GDP... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2015 The latest surveys of banks, companies and households in China show a marked deterioration in sentiment about the economy although measures of business profits and orders and of the labour market have... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equity markets find their footing, but rebound unlikely After a tumultuous few months, Chinese stock markets stabilised ahead of a week-long recess for the Golden Week holidays. Meanwhile, market interest rates remain near record lows and the PBOC appears... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shanghai-London Stock Connect, more hype than substance It is likely to be a long time before any “Shanghai-London Stock Connect” scheme gets off the groundand even when it does the impact will be small. 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Revised GDP data as open to question as before China’s statistics bureau last week announced changes to how its GDP figures are compiled. In principle, the shift should improve the precision of the data. In practice, the changes to historical real... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update SOE reform plan falls short China’s latest proposals to shake-up state-owned industry are underwhelming. We expect the economy to continue growing at decent rates over the years ahead, but believe this will happen in spite of... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Exports also hit by commodity price falls It is widely understood that the value of China’s imports has been pulled down by falling commodity prices. Less well appreciated is that lower commodity prices also explain in large part why China’s... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation on the rise Concerns over deflation in China look increasingly misplaced, with consumer priceinflation likely to have hit a one-year high in August and on course to rise further inthe final months of this year. 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital outflows not as large as doom mongers feared Capital outflows from China have picked up since last month’s botched currency reforms but by less than many had feared. Our view, in any case, is that outflows don’t pose as big a threat to China’s... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Temporary disruptions are delaying recovery but won’t derail it The Tianjin blast, along with efforts to ensure blue skies in Beijing ahead of this week’s Victory Day parade, will have weighed on industrial activity in August. But the drag from these disruptions... 31st August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policy missteps cause market waves China’s policymakers have had a dreadful month with a series of market interventions that were both badly conceived and poorly communicated. 31st August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Little chance of a Hong Kong de-pegging Although there has been a surge of speculation in the wake of China’s exchange rate move that Hong Kong could abandon its US dollar peg, we expect the peg to remain in place well into the next decade. 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers put focus on supporting economy, not market With the government’s efforts to prop up equity prices through direct purchases in tatters, policymakers have changed tack with a simultaneous cut to benchmark interest rates and the required reserve... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read