China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress Official statements at the National People’s Congress have signalled, as expected, that the immediate economic priority is to support growth including with a looser fiscal stance and more monetary... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New Year effect pushes up inflation A spike in food prices due to Chinese New Year looks likely to have caused inflation to pick up further in February. Once seasonal volatility has faded, we expect inflation to rise further this year... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress China’s annual National People’s Congress starts on Saturday. Among the headline announcements are likely to be GDP growth targets for this year and beyond that are unrealistically high and will do... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities fall as sentiment remains fragile Stock markets in China slumped at the end of February, erasing nearly all of the gains they had made since the late-January low. Meanwhile, market interest rates have remained near record lows. The... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update RRR cut may signal capital outflow concerns abating The People’s Bank paused monetary loosening in recent weeks apparently on concerns that it would worsen capital outflows. The government stepped up fiscal support instead. Today’s cut to the required... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong growth to remain subdued in 2016 Today’s GDP data confirmed that growth in Hong Kong stayed weak at the end of 2015. Although the government has unveiled a budget that should support growth this year, we don’t think it will be enough... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Food prices surge ahead of Spring Festival celebrations Swings in food prices around Chinese New Year will have caused inflation to jump in January. This pick-up may partly reverse this month but the bigger picture is that inflation still looks set to rise... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC still far from exhausting reserves The idea that the People’s Bank is running out of FX reserves doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. But the fact that many take it seriously is a sign of how far sentiment has swung against China. 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will capital controls work? Many countries facing balance of payments strains have found that large outflows continue even after they tighten capital controls. China though stands a better chance of success. The capital account... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What would convince us we’re wrong on China? If the economy doesn’t show signs of a turnaround in coming months, we would have to downgrade our relatively upbeat view of China’s economic prospects. But we would need to see evidence of clear... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Tumultous start to 2016 Chinese equities have already lost nearly a quarter of their value so far this year. Meanwhile, the renminbi is once again tracking the dollar closely and skirting the weak edge of its apparent trade... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China, growth star Markets appear convinced that China is in the midst of an economic crisis. Yet even on the basis of our relatively downbeat measure of China’s growth, it remains one of the world’s fastest-growing... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC moves to keep interbank rates inside its new corridor Large injections of liquidity into the banking system by the People’s Bank (PBOC) have grabbed headlines today. The moves have more to do with offsetting the usual spike in liquidity demand ahead of... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update GDP breakdown suggests policy support is gaining traction The GDP data, once the impact of the swings in China's stock market are stripped out, add weight to what our China Activity Proxy has been suggesting for some time – that growth in the real economy... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could Hong Kong’s peg survive a speculative attack? A shift in market expectations about China’s exchange rate has put Hong Kong’s peg to the US dollar under fresh scrutiny. But despite the surge in speculation, we think the peg will stay for years to... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Another look at China’s trade data The latest trade data are a challenge to those who believe that China’s export sector needs renminbi depreciation to compete or that China’s economy is continuing to slow. 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
