China Economics Update Drag on growth from anti-graft measures easing Three years on, there is no sign that China’s anti-corruption campaign is being eased, but its drag on economic growth is fading. 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi joining SDR basket won't increase demand The IMF has just confirmed that the renminbi will be added to its SDR basket. Thismay be of symbolic significance to some but we think it will make hardly anydifference to currency demand. In other... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fiscal drag now turning to fiscal boost The debate about China’s economic outlook hinges on what caused growth to slow early in 2015. One of the main culprits, in our view, was fiscal policy, which tightened significantly in late-2014 and... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC shifting monetary policy framework The main significance of today’s announcement by the People’s Bank (PBOC) that it is cutting standing lending facility (SLF) interest rates is that it is experimenting with a new monetary policy... 19th November 2015 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update SDR inclusion unlikely to boost renminbi demand The IMF’s decision to include the renminbi in the SDR basket will not directly increase demand for renminbi assets. The implicit endorsement of the renminbi as a reserve asset is unlikely to sway the... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fading outflows ease pressure on renminbi Capital outflows from China appear to have eased while the trade surplus is at an all-time high. As a result, downward pressure on the renminbi has dissipated. We suspect, contrary to the analyst... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Deflation fears set to fade as broad price pressures rise Headline inflation is likely to have edged down in October due to a fall in food price inflation. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures appear to be picking up. Looking ahead, we... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The implications for China of deposit rate liberalisation When the PBOC cut benchmark interest rates late last month, it also removed the regulatory ceiling on banks’ deposit rates. This final step in liberalising interest rates came sooner than many had... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Attention shifts to bonds as equities recover Chinese equities broke a four-month losing streak in October. Meanwhile, a contraction in spreads for corporate bonds has sparked fears that a bubble is building. But there is little that looks likely... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Plenum fails to resolve tension between reform and growth goals A communique released after the conclusion of the Fifth Plenum provides a glimpse at the contents of the upcoming Five-Year Plan. It suggests that policymakers are not wavering on their reform... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Abolition of one-child policy does not alter growth outlook The abolition of China’s controversial one-child policy may have grabbed plenty of headlines, but the economic impact of the move will be small. 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stimulus, plus a dash of reform The People’s Bank has delivered another jolt of stimulus in the form of cuts to both benchmark interest rates and the required reserve ratio. Deposit rates have also now been fully liberalised, an... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Service sector activity looks healthy despite data concerns Although we think the official GDP figures overstate growth, we believe that it is primarily industrial growth that is exaggerated and are more willing to take the strength in services at face value. 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Official GDP data set to remain political tool We shouldn’t expect China to have a statistical system as robust as those in the developed world. But the problems in China go beyond those normally found in an emerging economy. The biggest is that... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Price pressures to rise further A seasonal slide in fruit and vegetable prices may have temporarily pulled down consumer price inflation last month. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures appear to be picking up... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Making sense of the official GDP data The official GDP figures are likely to show a small slowdown in China’s growth rate in Q3 – and also to be greeted with a large amount of scepticism. We’d put more weight on the details of the GDP... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
