China Economics Update China, growth star Markets appear convinced that China is in the midst of an economic crisis. Yet even on the basis of our relatively downbeat measure of China’s growth, it remains one of the world’s fastest-growing... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC moves to keep interbank rates inside its new corridor Large injections of liquidity into the banking system by the People’s Bank (PBOC) have grabbed headlines today. The moves have more to do with offsetting the usual spike in liquidity demand ahead of... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update GDP breakdown suggests policy support is gaining traction The GDP data, once the impact of the swings in China's stock market are stripped out, add weight to what our China Activity Proxy has been suggesting for some time – that growth in the real economy... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Could Hong Kong’s peg survive a speculative attack? A shift in market expectations about China’s exchange rate has put Hong Kong’s peg to the US dollar under fresh scrutiny. But despite the surge in speculation, we think the peg will stay for years to... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Another look at China’s trade data The latest trade data are a challenge to those who believe that China’s export sector needs renminbi depreciation to compete or that China’s economy is continuing to slow. 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is driving capital out of China? The recent flood of capital leaving China has been driven primarily by increased scepticism that the People’s Bank will hold to its pledge to keep the renminbi stable. The fact that the PBOC has ended... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Economy slow but still stable despite market meltdown China’s equity markets continue to tumble, its currency is under unprecedented pressure and Chinese policymakers’ reputation for competence is looking ever more tarnished. Contrary to many of the... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation picking up The weekend’s inflation data should provide a respite from fears that China’s economy and financial markets are collapsing. We foresee another rise in consumer price inflation, which should further... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How long can the PBOC hold on? The willingness of the People’s Bank to sell over $100bn of foreign exchange reserves last month is a measure of its belief that a stable currency is in China’s interests and that current downward... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update When might things improve? This week’s declines in China’s stock markets and currency raise a challenge to our relatively upbeat view of near-term prospects. But we continue to believe that growth is more likely to pick up than... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Basket shift adds to depreciation pressure Strong hints from the People’s Bank that it is shifting the focus of its exchange rate management to a trade-weighted currency basket have intensified expectations of further renminbi declines. But... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Further signs that the economy is turning a corner China’s activity data for November provide further evidence that policy easing has helped to stabilise the economy. We continue to expect conditions to improve over the coming months. 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC hints at move to tracking basket The People’s Bank appears to be shifting its management of the renminbi to tracking a currency basket rather than the dollar. While some will see this as cover for currency devaluation, we suspect the... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2016 Sentiment on China’s economic outlook remains downbeat with most anticipating a deeper downturn next year. In contrast, we think developments could surprise to the upside. 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Broad price pressures set to rise Despite widespread concerns about deflation, consumer price inflation has remained within a narrow (positive) range over the course of this year. With credit growth rebounding and wage growth... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fiscal deposit auctions could provide stimulus shot A report today suggesting that all local governments may soon be allowed to auction off their fiscal deposits deserves more attention than it has received. Such a move would have important... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
