China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Foreigners continued to pull money out of China last month. But a further slowdown in the pace of external debt deleveraging helped to keep capital outflows manageable. 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation picks up Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in April to the highest since 2013 on the back of a further increase in pork prices. This may trigger concerns about a re-run of the pork-powered... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Corporate bond spreads widen Worries about a rise in defaults pushed corporate bond spreads up sharply in April. Meanwhile, the rally in China’s equity markets came to a halt. 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Has property finally turned the corner? A recovery in China’s property market appears to be giving a lift to economic growth. This should continue for a few quarters. But the turnaround does not signal that the drawn-out correction in China... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How long will the rebound continue? Stimulus that is already in the pipeline should sustain China’s economic recovery to near the end of the year. But policymakers are more aware than in the past of the damage that excessive stimulus... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update When will pork price inflation peak? Pork price inflation in China surged in March, bringing echoes of 2007 and 2011, when spikes in pork prices caused headline consumer price inflation to jump above 6%. However, we think the upward... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows eased further last month on the back of fading concerns over the outlook for the renminbi and the recent tightening of controls on cross-border flows. 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Basically stable” renminbi in quiet retreat The renminbi’s continued trade-weighted decline is probably best seen as an opportunistic response by Chinese policymakers to a period of broad dollar weakness rather than reflecting a policy to... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property revival shoring up growth, for now The cyclical recovery we had forecast for the start of 2016 appears to be underway. The turnaround has been built on the back of stronger activity in construction and real estate, supported by policy... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation outlook appears benign After a seasonal spike in February, CPI inflation is likely to have to have fallen slightly last month. That said, inflation is likely to remain higher in the coming quarters than during most of the... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China attempting the impossible? China is targeting average annual growth of at least 6.5% over the coming five years. Such rapid growth, which would place China in the top 10% of what has been achieved historically by other... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rebound in margin lending boosts equities Stock markets in China rose in March, helped in part by a pick-up in margin lending. Meanwhile, there are signs that speculative downward pressures on the renminbi have eased. Market interest rates... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) Capital outflows eased markedly last month as the pace of outbound investment by Chinese firms and investors cooled and foreigners pulled money out of mainland securities and renminbi deposits at a... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update NPC puts short-run growth ahead of reform The National People’s Congress has ended today leaving us still feeling confident in our relatively upbeat view of the immediate outlook for the economy. But the leadership’s continued tentative... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Housing downturn set to weigh on growth in Hong Kong A plunge in home sales in February is the latest sign that Hong Kong’s overheated property market is now in the midst of a correction. We expect the housing market downturn to weigh on economic growth... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A stronger start to 2016 China’s latest activity data are more upbeat than first meets the eye and, on balance, suggest that economic momentum improved slightly in early 2016. We expect clearer signs of a recovery over the... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
