China Economics Update Service sector remains healthy China’s GDP data are widely maligned. But one area where the figures are useful is in the detail they provide on the service sector. Figures for Q2 suggests that, finance apart, most sections of the... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Floods add risks to inflation outlook Consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen in June on the back of a further decline in food price inflation. Looking ahead, while we expect inflation in the second half of 2016 to be broadly... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC weakening renminbi and its own credibility Continued declines in the renminbi against both the dollar and the official trade-weighted basket make a mockery of the PBOC’s suggestion that its policy is to keep the currency’s value stable... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What will the GDP data tell us about underlying conditions? The Q2 GDP data will provide a welcome glimpse into the performance of parts of the service sector where the regular monthly flow of data provides less visibility. But the figures should be handled... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s data flaws extend beyond GDP Our new measure of activity in China’s industrial sector, based on data on the output of hundreds of products, points to much slower growth than the closely-watched monthly industrial production data... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s markets calm after Brexit The renminbi has weakened against the US dollar following the UK’s decision last week to leave the EU. But there are no signs of renewed panic about the currency.Meanwhile, equity markets have held... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q2 2016 The latest surveys of banks, companies and households in China released today suggest that business conditions and consumer confidence both improved this quarter. However, demand for loans remained... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Currency moves, not economic links, main Brexit concern The direct economic implications for China from the UK’s decision to leave the EU are small. A greater concern is that the renminbi could come under pressure to weaken against a resurgent dollar in... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (May) Capital flows out of China have stabilised in recent months and policymakers have responded by once again easing restrictions on cross-border flows. But outflows are likely to pick up again if the... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wealth effect weighs on Hong Kong consumption Private consumption growth in Hong Kong is at the weakest since 2009, even though the labour market is tight and real wages are growing strongly. The downturn in the city’s housing market and a slump... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why has stronger credit not lifted growth? Credit growth has been accelerating since the middle of last year and yet growth has remained sluggish, raising questions over the effectiveness of recent policy stimulus. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Goldilocks inflation rare bright spot for policymakers For China’s policymakers worrying about overcapacity, misplaced credit and pressures on the currency, the benign inflation outlook is a rare bright spot. We think consumer price inflation in China was... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Migrant workers reveal strains across economy The latest survey on migrant workers, who are often the first to suffer when economic and labour market conditions deteriorate, confirms evidence elsewhere of weakness in key parts of the economy. And... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What difference would MSCI inclusion make? A decision to include mainland Chinese shares in MSCI’s global equity indices would cause ripples rather than waves in Shanghai and Shenzhen. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is going on with the renminbi? In trade-weighted terms, the renminbi has regained some lost ground recently. But all the headlinesare about it falling to multi-year lows against the dollar. This underlines the difficult position... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can China afford to bail out its banks? China’s government has the resources to clean up the bad debts in its financial system. Even if the corporate sector were to default on a quarter of its debt and the government responded by bailing... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
