China Economics Update Goldilocks inflation rare bright spot for policymakers For China’s policymakers worrying about overcapacity, misplaced credit and pressures on the currency, the benign inflation outlook is a rare bright spot. We think consumer price inflation in China was... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Migrant workers reveal strains across economy The latest survey on migrant workers, who are often the first to suffer when economic and labour market conditions deteriorate, confirms evidence elsewhere of weakness in key parts of the economy. And... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What difference would MSCI inclusion make? A decision to include mainland Chinese shares in MSCI’s global equity indices would cause ripples rather than waves in Shanghai and Shenzhen. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is going on with the renminbi? In trade-weighted terms, the renminbi has regained some lost ground recently. But all the headlinesare about it falling to multi-year lows against the dollar. This underlines the difficult position... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can China afford to bail out its banks? China’s government has the resources to clean up the bad debts in its financial system. Even if the corporate sector were to default on a quarter of its debt and the government responded by bailing... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Foreigners continued to pull money out of China last month. But a further slowdown in the pace of external debt deleveraging helped to keep capital outflows manageable. 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation picks up Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in April to the highest since 2013 on the back of a further increase in pork prices. This may trigger concerns about a re-run of the pork-powered... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Corporate bond spreads widen Worries about a rise in defaults pushed corporate bond spreads up sharply in April. Meanwhile, the rally in China’s equity markets came to a halt. 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Has property finally turned the corner? A recovery in China’s property market appears to be giving a lift to economic growth. This should continue for a few quarters. But the turnaround does not signal that the drawn-out correction in China... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How long will the rebound continue? Stimulus that is already in the pipeline should sustain China’s economic recovery to near the end of the year. But policymakers are more aware than in the past of the damage that excessive stimulus... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update When will pork price inflation peak? Pork price inflation in China surged in March, bringing echoes of 2007 and 2011, when spikes in pork prices caused headline consumer price inflation to jump above 6%. However, we think the upward... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows eased further last month on the back of fading concerns over the outlook for the renminbi and the recent tightening of controls on cross-border flows. 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Basically stable” renminbi in quiet retreat The renminbi’s continued trade-weighted decline is probably best seen as an opportunistic response by Chinese policymakers to a period of broad dollar weakness rather than reflecting a policy to... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property revival shoring up growth, for now The cyclical recovery we had forecast for the start of 2016 appears to be underway. The turnaround has been built on the back of stronger activity in construction and real estate, supported by policy... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation outlook appears benign After a seasonal spike in February, CPI inflation is likely to have to have fallen slightly last month. That said, inflation is likely to remain higher in the coming quarters than during most of the... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China attempting the impossible? China is targeting average annual growth of at least 6.5% over the coming five years. Such rapid growth, which would place China in the top 10% of what has been achieved historically by other... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
