China Economics Update Markets stable one year after panic The rally in China’s stock markets appears to be running out of steam. Meanwhile, further FX intervention by the PBOC has helped to keep the renminbi relatively stable against the US dollar, though it... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Private investment slowdown overstated but still worrying Private investment in China may not have slowed quite as rapidly this year as the official figures suggest. Nonetheless, the downward trend remains worrying and is likely to weigh on future growth. 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Capital flows out of China accelerated in July to their fastest since February, according to our latest detailed estimates. The People’s Bank responded with heavier intervention so that, despite... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slow take-up to limit impact of Shenzhen-HK Connect Today’s approval of a link between stock markets in Hong Kong and Shenzhen may boost market sentiment and is a welcome signal that policymakers are keen to press on with financial reform as concerns... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Food prices set to rise after floods Consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen in July, dragged down by a sharp drop in pork price inflation. But we expect inflation to edge up again in the coming months as severe flooding across... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC probably won’t cut rates or the RRR anytime soon Concerns about growing credit risks mean that the People’s Bank has good reason to hold off from another round of broad easing measures until clear signs of a renewed downturn emerge. 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Currency policy still lacks clarity one year on from RMB panic The global market panic following the step down in the renminbi fixing rate a year ago turned out to be overdone. The currency has since weakened further, but the large scale competitive devaluation... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC steps up FX interventions Stock markets in China have had a volatile end to the month. Meanwhile, the PBOC appears to have stepped up its foreign currency interventions in order to prevent the renminbi from weakening further... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (June) Global investors pulled money out of China’s financial markets at a slightly faster pace last month, perhaps due to renewed concerns about the outlook for the renminbi. But the largest rise in foreign... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Service sector remains healthy China’s GDP data are widely maligned. But one area where the figures are useful is in the detail they provide on the service sector. Figures for Q2 suggests that, finance apart, most sections of the... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Floods add risks to inflation outlook Consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen in June on the back of a further decline in food price inflation. Looking ahead, while we expect inflation in the second half of 2016 to be broadly... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC weakening renminbi and its own credibility Continued declines in the renminbi against both the dollar and the official trade-weighted basket make a mockery of the PBOC’s suggestion that its policy is to keep the currency’s value stable... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What will the GDP data tell us about underlying conditions? The Q2 GDP data will provide a welcome glimpse into the performance of parts of the service sector where the regular monthly flow of data provides less visibility. But the figures should be handled... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s data flaws extend beyond GDP Our new measure of activity in China’s industrial sector, based on data on the output of hundreds of products, points to much slower growth than the closely-watched monthly industrial production data... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s markets calm after Brexit The renminbi has weakened against the US dollar following the UK’s decision last week to leave the EU. But there are no signs of renewed panic about the currency.Meanwhile, equity markets have held... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q2 2016 The latest surveys of banks, companies and households in China released today suggest that business conditions and consumer confidence both improved this quarter. However, demand for loans remained... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read