China Economics Update Easy credit lifting the service sector China’s GDP data are widely maligned. But one area where the figures are useful is in the detail they provide on the service sector. Figures for Q3 show stronger activity in retail and real estate... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Coming property price correction to weigh on growth The sharp rise in property prices over the past year, fuelled by a surge in mortgage lending, is clearly not sustainable and we expect a correction before long. This may not be the threat to financial... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Food prices drive inflation rebound Headline inflation likely rose last month on the back of a pick-up in food prices. But after a near-term rise, we expect price pressures to ease again further ahead. 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rise in repo rate not a sign of policy tightening With the renminbi on the cusp on joining the IMF’s SDR basket, the PBOC appears to have been working hard to hold it steady in recent weeks. Meanwhile, attention has been drawn to a pick-up in the 7... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much would a Trump tariff hurt China? An across-the-board 45% tariff on imports from China may end up raising retail prices in the US by only 10%, and less still if Chinese policymakers responded by allowing the renminbi to weaken. With... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update SDR inclusion could remove near-term support for RMB The inclusion of the renminbi in the IMF’s SDR basket at the start of October will have minimal impact on foreign demand for renminbi assets and therefore offers little support for the Chinese... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) According to our detailed estimates, capital flows out of China were stable last month after rising slightly in July. Global investors continued to pull money out of the country, but Chinese... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2016 Banks, firms and households have all become more upbeat on the economic outlook recently, according to the latest People’s Bank surveys released over the weekend. In particular, households appear more... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fall in inflation will be short-lived Consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen further in August, dragged down by a drop in food price inflation. But this will mask a continued pick-up in broader price pressures that is set to... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China caught in a “liquidity trap”? A number of voices have begun loosely using the term “liquidity trap” to argue that stronger credit growth in China has failed to provide a greater boost to output because firms are hoarding cash... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China engaging in QE by the back door? A number of commentators have recently drawn attention to a rapid rise in lending by the People’s Bank to domestic banks and suggested that this represents a form of stealth credit expansion or... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Downturn in Hong Kong property market still has further to run Data released today show home prices in Hong Kong rising for a fourth straight month in July, raising hopes that the city’s property market correction may be over. But with interest rates set to rise... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Markets stable one year after panic The rally in China’s stock markets appears to be running out of steam. Meanwhile, further FX intervention by the PBOC has helped to keep the renminbi relatively stable against the US dollar, though it... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Private investment slowdown overstated but still worrying Private investment in China may not have slowed quite as rapidly this year as the official figures suggest. Nonetheless, the downward trend remains worrying and is likely to weigh on future growth. 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Capital flows out of China accelerated in July to their fastest since February, according to our latest detailed estimates. The People’s Bank responded with heavier intervention so that, despite... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slow take-up to limit impact of Shenzhen-HK Connect Today’s approval of a link between stock markets in Hong Kong and Shenzhen may boost market sentiment and is a welcome signal that policymakers are keen to press on with financial reform as concerns... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
