China Economics Update Equities hit three-month high Chinese equities started the Year of the Chicken on a bright note, rising in February by the most in three months. Meanwhile, the PBOC has continued to tighten monetary conditions by pushing market... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC), starts soon. While the NPC meeting typically includes little in the way of policy announcements, it should nonetheless... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Export revival boosting Hong Kong’s economy Today’s GDP figures show that growth in Hong Kong strengthened further at the end of last year on the back of a jump in exports. But while the economy should continue to perform well in the first half... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Recent data provide further evidence that China’s moves to tighten capital controls are having an effect. According to our detailed estimates, outflows last month were the smallest since August... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s worries over Trump fade China’s relationship with the US has so far been less fraught than had seemed likely immediately after President Trump’s election victory. Tensions are likely to flare up at some point but the most... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation up in January, but rebound unlikely to last A further rise in producer price inflation, which probably hit a fresh five year high in January, is likely to fuel concerns about a pick-up in broad price pressures this year. But we think consumer... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Repo rate hikes confirm tightening of monetary stance The People’s Bank has raised the interest rate that it charges when providing funds in China’s repo market. This is the clearest evidence so far that monetary policy is being tightened and that... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi rebounds against dollar as PBOC tightens controls The renminbi appreciated against the US currency this month for the first time since October, helped by a tightening of capital controls. But in trade-weighted terms, the Chinese currency has been... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China still in cross-hairs over trade China’s current account surplus is no longer unusually large. But its surplus in traded goods is substantial, particularly relative to the size of the global economy, and the bilateral imbalance with... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) China’s moves to tighten capital controls are seeing some success. According to our detailed estimates, outflows last month were the smallest since August thanks to a sharp pull-back in outbound... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Service sector ends 2016 on a strong note China’s GDP data are widely maligned. But one area where the figures are useful is in the detail they provide on the service sector. The full breakdown published over the weekend points to broad based... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No float for the renminbi China will need to let the renminbi float at some stage if it intends to push ahead with plans to liberalise the capital account and encourage greater international use of the currency. But, recent... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation soft in December but set to leap Headline inflation probably fell in December. But looking ahead, we think both consumer and producer price inflation are set to jump this quarter on the back of a surge in commodity price inflation... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC down to its last $3 trillion The value of China’s foreign exchange reserves fell by 10% in 2016 as the People’s Bank fought to prevent a disorderly decline in the renminbi. With the level of reserves still well above most... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The People’s Bank fights back The year has started with another wave of stories about capital flooding out of China, alongside an unusually sharp strengthening of the renminbi. The currency gain over the past couple of days was... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Bond market sell-off overdone China is ending 2016 on a stronger footing economically but with growing strains in its financial markets. A slight tightening of monetary conditions has snowballed into a bond market sell-off, with... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
