China Economics Update Investment not as strong as meets the eye Nominal investment growth accelerated in Q1, leading to increased optimism over this year’s economic outlook. But adjusting the data for the jump in fixed asset price inflation suggests that... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New (non-consensus) growth forecasts for Hong Kong Hong Kong’s economy has rebounded over the past year and is likely to stay strong in the near-term, supported by rapid export growth, and we have raised our forecast for 2017. But we expect a fresh... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update North Korea to distract from trade at Trump-Xi Summit We expect Donald Trump to tone down his criticism of China’s mercantilist policies when he meets Xi Jinping later today in order to focus on dealing with the more pressing threat from North Korea. If... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation rebounds as New Year distortions fade Consumer price inflation ought to have rebounded from a seasonal decline in February last month but remained low. Looking ahead, households will continue to face relatively subdued price pressures in... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New economic zone won’t match Shenzhen, Pudong China’s government recently launched a new economic zone near Beijing that it is billing as the most important project of its kind since the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone and Shanghai’s Pudong New... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Repo rise signals growing concern over credit risks China’s interbank repo rates have fallen back slightly after the headline-grabbing spike last week that took them to their highest in more than two years. But the bigger picture is that the PBOC has... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Leader of the free (trade) world? President Xi Jinping is heading to the US next week presenting himself – in contrast to President Trump – as a champion of free trade. Foreign firms operating in China tell a different story. In this... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2017 The latest People’s Bank surveys show that conditions for banks, firms and households have all continued to improve this quarter. But while the general picture was positive, there were also some dark... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can Carrie Lam solve Hong Kong’s problems? There is little doubt that Carrie Lam, the former head of Hong Kong’s civil service and the candidate preferred by Beijing, will be chosen on Sunday as the city’s next chief executive. But she won’t... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) According to our latest detailed estimates, China witnessed a net inflow of capital last month for the first time in almost three years. Tighter capital controls and seasonal factors helped drive this... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The People’s Bank follows the Fed The People’s Bank has followed the Fed in raising the interest rate it charges when providing funds in China’s interbank market. But we believe that tighter policy in China continues to be primarily... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Premier Li signals lower emphasis on growth Premier Li Keqiang’s remarks to the press today following the conclusion of the National People’s Congress reinforce our view that policymakers will allow a renewed slowdown in economic growth this... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Officials remain too cautious on structural reforms The latest reports and official comments from the National People’s Congress suggest that progress on reducing overcapacity and state sector reforms will remain sluggish this year. Unless policymakers... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC relaxed about RMB, signals monetary tightening In his annual outing before the press at the National People’s Congress today, People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan made a strong case that policy support for the renminbi can be sustained in the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New Year distortions drag inflation down Following a spike in January to a near-three-year high, consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen last month to a six-month low. This should be the nadir for inflation this year. Looking ahead... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress Official statements at the National People’s Congress suggest policymakers feel less urgency to support growth than a year ago and are instead attempting to address credit risks by tightening monetary... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
