China Economics Update Premier Li signals lower emphasis on growth Premier Li Keqiang’s remarks to the press today following the conclusion of the National People’s Congress reinforce our view that policymakers will allow a renewed slowdown in economic growth this... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Officials remain too cautious on structural reforms The latest reports and official comments from the National People’s Congress suggest that progress on reducing overcapacity and state sector reforms will remain sluggish this year. Unless policymakers... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC relaxed about RMB, signals monetary tightening In his annual outing before the press at the National People’s Congress today, People’s Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan made a strong case that policy support for the renminbi can be sustained in the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New Year distortions drag inflation down Following a spike in January to a near-three-year high, consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen last month to a six-month low. This should be the nadir for inflation this year. Looking ahead... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress Official statements at the National People’s Congress suggest policymakers feel less urgency to support growth than a year ago and are instead attempting to address credit risks by tightening monetary... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities hit three-month high Chinese equities started the Year of the Chicken on a bright note, rising in February by the most in three months. Meanwhile, the PBOC has continued to tighten monetary conditions by pushing market... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC), starts soon. While the NPC meeting typically includes little in the way of policy announcements, it should nonetheless... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Export revival boosting Hong Kong’s economy Today’s GDP figures show that growth in Hong Kong strengthened further at the end of last year on the back of a jump in exports. But while the economy should continue to perform well in the first half... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Recent data provide further evidence that China’s moves to tighten capital controls are having an effect. According to our detailed estimates, outflows last month were the smallest since August... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s worries over Trump fade China’s relationship with the US has so far been less fraught than had seemed likely immediately after President Trump’s election victory. Tensions are likely to flare up at some point but the most... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation up in January, but rebound unlikely to last A further rise in producer price inflation, which probably hit a fresh five year high in January, is likely to fuel concerns about a pick-up in broad price pressures this year. But we think consumer... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Repo rate hikes confirm tightening of monetary stance The People’s Bank has raised the interest rate that it charges when providing funds in China’s repo market. This is the clearest evidence so far that monetary policy is being tightened and that... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi rebounds against dollar as PBOC tightens controls The renminbi appreciated against the US currency this month for the first time since October, helped by a tightening of capital controls. But in trade-weighted terms, the Chinese currency has been... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China still in cross-hairs over trade China’s current account surplus is no longer unusually large. But its surplus in traded goods is substantial, particularly relative to the size of the global economy, and the bilateral imbalance with... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) China’s moves to tighten capital controls are seeing some success. According to our detailed estimates, outflows last month were the smallest since August thanks to a sharp pull-back in outbound... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Service sector ends 2016 on a strong note China’s GDP data are widely maligned. But one area where the figures are useful is in the detail they provide on the service sector. The full breakdown published over the weekend points to broad based... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
