China Economics Update Floods add upside risks to inflation outlook We think headline inflation will have risen in June to a five-month high on the back of a further rebound in food price inflation. Looking ahead, while we don’t expect consumer price inflation to rise... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Bond link will struggle to attract foreign investors The Bond Connect scheme launched today creates a new channel for foreigners to invest in China’s onshore bond market. If previous steps to expand market access are any guide, however, the move will do... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities, renminbi rise on state intervention Chinese equities ended June at a two-month high, likely supported by state buying. Increased intervention by officials also appears to have been responsible for the renminbi’s recent appreciation... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Public debt set to rebound Efforts to curtail off-budget borrowing by local governments have recently helped slow the rise of China’s public debt ratio. But a further rise in government debt is almost certain in future as it... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (May) Capital outflows from China were broadly unchanged last month and are likely to persist at this relatively low level for the foreseeable future as households and firms increase their exposure to... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC to keep rates stable post-Fed and beyond The US Fed is poised to raise rates on Wednesday. When it last hiked back in March, the People’s Bank quickly followed suit. This time, however, we expect the PBOC to stay on hold and, indeed, to keep... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Non-food inflation close to a peak We think headline inflation will have risen in May to a four-month high, driven by a further recovery in food price inflation. But looking ahead, CPI inflation is unlikely to rise much further this... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Problems continue to brew at Chinese banks The outlook for China’s banks is going from bad to worse. Pressure on the banking system has increased during the past year even though economic activity has recovered. And with a renewed slowdown now... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi jumps as fixing mechanism changes China’s markets were left unfazed by the ratings downgrade last week. But there have been some sizeable gains since then in the renminbi as policymakers have signalled their determination to prevent... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC tightens the renminbi’s leash The change in the renminbi fixing mechanism announced today shouldn’t rattle markets, not least because it appears to be an attempt to strengthen rather than weaken the currency. It suggests though... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Regulatory crackdown poses risks to growth, financial stability The ongoing regulatory crackdown on banks’ off-balance-sheet activities has contributed to the mild slowdown in growth we’ve seen recently. But it is also bringing into focus the challenges that China... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Downgrade underlines fiscal risks in debt build-up Today’s ratings downgrade reveals little that investors didn’t already know about credit growth in China and the risk that it requires the government to accept a big increase in its debt load in... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) After a sharp decline at the start of the year, net capital outflows have crept up again recently. Unless we witness another misstep on exchange rate policy though, outflow pressure should remain... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What would make policymakers change course? The weak activity and spending data published yesterday add to evidence that growth in China is starting to slow. We think the deceleration in the economy will be gradual and expect official efforts... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Paltry trade benefits from US-China deal The trade deal announced between the US and China today won’t make any meaningful difference to the bilateral trade imbalance, which could still trigger a flare-up of tensions between the two sides in... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation set to rise, but outlook benign We think headline inflation will have risen in April and expect a further pick-up over the next few months. But price pressures should remain contained over the course of this year. Meanwhile, the... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
