China Economics Update Xi is prioritising politics over market opening The Party Congress kicked off today with the Report delivered by Xi Jinping. His ability to emphasise his contributions to Communist Party doctrine over those his predecessors hints at a successful... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Expanding property curbs to weigh further on sales A slump in home sales in China’s major cities during the National Day holiday has grabbed many headlines this week. But this weakness isn’t a new development. Home sales in big cities have been... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would a stronger Xi be good for the economy? Reform implementation is likely to accelerate after the Party Congress, particularly if President Xi emerges in a stronger position. But given Xi’s reluctance to relinquish state control over key... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Mid-Autumn Festival distortions drag down inflation We expect consumer price inflation to have fallen in September as a shift in the timing of Mid-Autumn Festival probably caused a drop in food price inflation last month. This will reverse in October... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Monetary policy remaining tight despite RRR cut The People’s Bank gave its devotees a twinge of nostalgia on Saturday as it announced a cut to reserve requirements out of office hours and at the start of a national holiday in China. This was how... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi gives back some of its gains Many had been expecting policymakers to focus on stability above all else in financial markets in the run-up to the October Party Congress. But they this week allowed the renminbi to weaken sharply... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update S&P playing catch-up with downgrade S&P is the third of the three major ratings agencies to downgrade China and today’s decision tells us nothing we didn’t already know. There has actually been some progress recently in tackling credit... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) In seasonally-adjusted terms, capital outflows fell to a three-year low last month as Chinese firms and individuals reduced their foreign currency deposits at the fastest pace in half a year. Looking... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we expect a post-Congress shift in the policy agenda? With President Xi already firmly in charge of setting the government’s economic agenda, we don’t anticipate any major changes in policy goals after next month’s Party Congress. That said, a stronger... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three things to watch in the Standing Committee reshuffle President Xi is widely expected to consolidate his power over the Party and over policy at the Party Congress next month. Politics is extremely opaque at elite levels in China and we won’t have any... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC hoping for exchange rate uncertainty, not weakness We don’t believe that officials at the People’s Bank are so acutely sensitive to the level of the exchange rate that they are now worried about renminbi strength – it has barely moved in trade... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Party Congress work report to offer early hints of Xi’s power Anticipation is building ahead of next month’s Party Congress, which is widely seen as a potential watershed in policymaking if it results in President Xi successfully consolidating his power. The... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to hit seven-month high in August Consumer price inflation probably rose last month to the highest since January, driven by a further rebound in food price inflation. But taking a step back, inflation is still fairly subdued and we... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Trade tensions rise after North Korea’s test President Trump’s suggestion that he would cut off all trade with countries that trade with North Korea is an empty threat when it comes to China. But the risk of some form of trade sanction has... 4th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Don’t underestimate the renminbi The renminbi’s strong gains against the dollar over recent weeks caught many by surprise, and most think they will reverse before long. By contrast, we believe there is a good chance that appreciation... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A tale of two currencies The renminbi’s continued strength against the US dollar this month has forced us to update our forecasts. The Hong Kong dollar, by contrast, has declined to record lows against the US currency and may... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
