China Economics Update The PBOC pretends to follow the Fed The People’s Bank has raised the rates it charges when providing funds in China’s interbank market. But unlike in the US, the move seems unlikely to result in higher short-term funding costs for most... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to jump in early 2018 We expect a spike in food price inflation to push headline CPI inflation up sharply over the months ahead. But with core inflation unlikely to pick up much further and PPI inflation set to fall... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update US tax cuts bolster calls for China to follow suit As US tax reform nears the finishing line, some in China are warning that the cut to US corporate tax rates could undermine China’s competitiveness and spur capital outflows. We think these concerns... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2018 We’ve revised down our forecast for China’s growth next year on the back of the weakness in recent data. There will be little movement in the official GDP growth numbers but we now expect actual... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Crackdown on online lending spooks markets Chinese equities have fallen back from recent highs after regulators spooked investors by tightening restrictions on online lending. But we don’t think a slump is likely. Meanwhile, corporate bond... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update GDP targets here to stay Official talk about prioritising the “quality” of economic growth over speed has sparked speculation that the government may stop setting GDP targets. Unfortunately we think they are here to stay. 22nd November 2017 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) After seeing net capital inflows in September for the first time in 2014, we think outflows will have returned last month as Chinese investors acquired foreign assets at a faster pace and inbound... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China increasing foreign access but still stacking deck Today’s announcement that China is removing foreign ownership restrictions in its financial sector is encouraging but it is unclear when this will happen. It is also unlikely that foreign-owned firms... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update High core inflation unlikely to trigger tightening Core inflation rose in September to six-year high, as rapid economic growth and a tight labour market continued to drive a pick-up underlying price pressures. But with growth soon likely to slow again... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to rise further We expect CPI inflation to have rebounded in October driven by a rise in food price inflation. The core rate, which hit a six-year high in September, will likely have edged up too. Looking ahead, a... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Pollution crackdown set to drag on growth A crackdown on polluters is already disrupting activity in parts of industry. But regulators look set to take even more aggressive action to meet air quality targets for the winter. Industrial output... 31st October 2017 · 13 mins read
China Economics Update Rise in government bond yields unlikely to last China’s government bond yields have risen over the past week as state funds have stopped propping up the country’s bond prices after the Party Congress. But with the PBOC likely to keep short-term... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Xi tightens his grip, leaves succession plans unclear As expected, Xi was able to stack China’s top leadership group with close allies. Furthermore, he left the door open to staying on beyond 2022 by not anointing a successor. Unfortunately, there are... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Xi enshrined in constitution, signalling his dominance Wang Qishan was not among the members of the new central committee announced today, ending speculation that retirement norms would be broken so that he could keep his position, possibly as a precursor... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Construction slowdown points to weakness ahead The detailed breakdown of China’s Q3 GDP data released today shows a slowdown in industry and construction that was offset by stronger activity in the financial and information technology sectors... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our estimates show that China saw a net inflow of capital last month, albeit a very small one, for the first time since 2014. Foreign investors acquired Chinese financial assets at the fastest pace in... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
