China Economics Update Party Congress work report to offer early hints of Xi’s power Anticipation is building ahead of next month’s Party Congress, which is widely seen as a potential watershed in policymaking if it results in President Xi successfully consolidating his power. The... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to hit seven-month high in August Consumer price inflation probably rose last month to the highest since January, driven by a further rebound in food price inflation. But taking a step back, inflation is still fairly subdued and we... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Trade tensions rise after North Korea’s test President Trump’s suggestion that he would cut off all trade with countries that trade with North Korea is an empty threat when it comes to China. But the risk of some form of trade sanction has... 4th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Don’t underestimate the renminbi The renminbi’s strong gains against the dollar over recent weeks caught many by surprise, and most think they will reverse before long. By contrast, we believe there is a good chance that appreciation... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A tale of two currencies The renminbi’s continued strength against the US dollar this month has forced us to update our forecasts. The Hong Kong dollar, by contrast, has declined to record lows against the US currency and may... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What’s going on with the Hong Kong dollar? While other currencies have recently been rising against the US dollar, the Hong Kong dollar has been sliding to historic lows, albeit within the narrow confines of its currency peg. This is the... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Net capital outflows from China edged up in July, but this was due to seasonal factors. Adjusting for these, outflows actually eased last month to a five-month low, helped by more rapid foreign... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Broad price pressures set to ease further Consumer prices appear to have risen at their fastest pace last month since February, driven by a rebound in food inflation. Even so, consumer price inflation remains muted and is unlikely to pick-up... 7th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update HK property prices set to fall as interest rates rebound The prospect of a property downturn triggered by monetary tightening in the US has long been the biggest risk hanging over Hong Kong’s economy. But while US interest rates have risen this year, rates... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update State sector reform continues to underwhelm There has been a fresh push recently on state sector reform but no sign that policymakers are willing to tackle the underlying reasons why state firms perform poorly. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi strengthens further against US dollar The Hong Kong dollar has continued to slide against the US dollar in recent weeks and may soon run into the buffers of the HKMA’s exchange rate band. The renminbi, by contrast, has been appreciating... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Net capital outflows from China were broadly unchanged in June as greater inflows from foreign investors helped to offset increased outflows due to Chinese investment overseas, including in Belt &... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Regulatory campaign weighing on service sector growth The detailed breakdown of China’s Q2 GDP data that has just been released suggests that a tougher regulatory environment is weighing on service sector growth. So far the drag has been mild but it may... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Leadership signals sustained focus on financial risks Relatively few substantive decisions appear to have been made at the National Financial Work Conference but statements about the need to limit financial risks are significant. They suggest that the... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Any changes to exchange rate regime likely to be cosmetic Another widening of the renminbi’s trading band is now a distinct possibility, following hints in a PBOC-run newspaper earlier this week. But such a move would make no difference to the trajectory of... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Asset management crackdown risks sparking volatility Earlier this week, the People’s Bank vowed to do more to regulate asset management products. While it is wise to seek to defuse the risks from these products sooner rather than later, doing so without... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
