China Economics Update Pain ahead for property developers China’s property sector has had a good couple of years and this has resulted in higher valuations for listed real estate developers. But the recent strength of land sales points, we think, to... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equity markets stabilise on state support Chinese stock markets have edged up recently following a slump in early February, likely supported by state buying. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong dollar has weakened against the US dollar and may soon run... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong to cool in 2018 Hong Kong’s economy ended last year on a fairly strong note, supported by buoyant exports. But we think growth will slow over the quarters ahead. The expansionary budget unveiled today will provide... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Our estimates show that outflow pressures eased at the start of this year after picking up in the fourth quarter. Foreign investors acquired Chinese financial assets at a more rapid pace last month... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update President for life? The removal of the two-term limit on China’s president is the clearest sign yet that Xi Jinping is reversing China’s reform era shift toward more institutionalised and rule-based politics. The quality... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers pushing back on renminbi Today’s sharp move in the renminbi underlines the extent to which policymakers are keen to prevent the emergence of strong speculative pressures on the currency. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation on the rise The usual pattern around Chinese New Year is for inflation to rise sharply either in January or February and fall in the other month. This year, we think inflation will have picked up in both. And... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi close to high-water mark The renminbi has now reversed all of its losses against the dollar since the day of the botched exchange rate reform in August 2015. We remain upbeat about the currency’s medium-term prospects but... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong start to 2018 Although they have fallen in the last couple of days, Chinese equities are still up sharply this year so far. The renminbi has also appreciated against the US dollar, taking it back to where it was... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How would China fight a trade war? If the long-running skirmishes between the US and China were to escalate into a trade war, China would try to occupy the moral high ground by portraying itself as a defender of free trade. At the time... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Trump still pulling his punches on China trade The new US tariffs on imports of solar panels and washing machines may be aimed at China but look more like a continuation of the skirmishing of recent years than the first salvos of a trade war. 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) Capital outflows from China rose slightly in December as Chinese households and firms added to their foreign asset holdings. Looking at the year as a whole, capital outflows fell by 80% in 2017. 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update IT boom fails to avert broader slowdown The detailed breakdown of China’s Q4 GDP data released today claims that stronger services activity, particularly in IT, fully offset a slowdown in construction and industry. While we don’t doubt that... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will strong global demand support China in 2018? Continued strength in foreign demand should help cushion some of the slowdown that we expect in China’s domestic economy this year. But it won’t prevent growth from weakening. 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC’s hands are tied over US Treasury holdings A Bloomberg report that Chinese officials are considering halting purchases of US government debt triggered a sell-off in the US Treasury market today. In fact, China has not been buying US debt for... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation set to jump We expect consumer price inflation to surge over the coming months on the back of a spike in food price inflation. However, with core inflation probably close to a peak and producer price inflation... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
