China Economics Update Rise in government bond yields unlikely to last China’s government bond yields have risen over the past week as state funds have stopped propping up the country’s bond prices after the Party Congress. But with the PBOC likely to keep short-term... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Xi tightens his grip, leaves succession plans unclear As expected, Xi was able to stack China’s top leadership group with close allies. Furthermore, he left the door open to staying on beyond 2022 by not anointing a successor. Unfortunately, there are... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Xi enshrined in constitution, signalling his dominance Wang Qishan was not among the members of the new central committee announced today, ending speculation that retirement norms would be broken so that he could keep his position, possibly as a precursor... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Construction slowdown points to weakness ahead The detailed breakdown of China’s Q3 GDP data released today shows a slowdown in industry and construction that was offset by stronger activity in the financial and information technology sectors... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our estimates show that China saw a net inflow of capital last month, albeit a very small one, for the first time since 2014. Foreign investors acquired Chinese financial assets at the fastest pace in... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Xi is prioritising politics over market opening The Party Congress kicked off today with the Report delivered by Xi Jinping. His ability to emphasise his contributions to Communist Party doctrine over those his predecessors hints at a successful... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Expanding property curbs to weigh further on sales A slump in home sales in China’s major cities during the National Day holiday has grabbed many headlines this week. But this weakness isn’t a new development. Home sales in big cities have been... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would a stronger Xi be good for the economy? Reform implementation is likely to accelerate after the Party Congress, particularly if President Xi emerges in a stronger position. But given Xi’s reluctance to relinquish state control over key... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Mid-Autumn Festival distortions drag down inflation We expect consumer price inflation to have fallen in September as a shift in the timing of Mid-Autumn Festival probably caused a drop in food price inflation last month. This will reverse in October... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Monetary policy remaining tight despite RRR cut The People’s Bank gave its devotees a twinge of nostalgia on Saturday as it announced a cut to reserve requirements out of office hours and at the start of a national holiday in China. This was how... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi gives back some of its gains Many had been expecting policymakers to focus on stability above all else in financial markets in the run-up to the October Party Congress. But they this week allowed the renminbi to weaken sharply... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update S&P playing catch-up with downgrade S&P is the third of the three major ratings agencies to downgrade China and today’s decision tells us nothing we didn’t already know. There has actually been some progress recently in tackling credit... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) In seasonally-adjusted terms, capital outflows fell to a three-year low last month as Chinese firms and individuals reduced their foreign currency deposits at the fastest pace in half a year. Looking... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we expect a post-Congress shift in the policy agenda? With President Xi already firmly in charge of setting the government’s economic agenda, we don’t anticipate any major changes in policy goals after next month’s Party Congress. That said, a stronger... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three things to watch in the Standing Committee reshuffle President Xi is widely expected to consolidate his power over the Party and over policy at the Party Congress next month. Politics is extremely opaque at elite levels in China and we won’t have any... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC hoping for exchange rate uncertainty, not weakness We don’t believe that officials at the People’s Bank are so acutely sensitive to the level of the exchange rate that they are now worried about renminbi strength – it has barely moved in trade... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
