China Economics Update Has Xi done enough to placate Trump? In an attempt to de-escalate trade tensions, Xi has pledged to speed up efforts to reduce trade and investment barriers, boost competition and bolster intellectual property protections. This could... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rising interest rates, trade tensions loom over HK Economic growth in Hong Kong has cooled in recent quarters, and we think this trend will continue over the coming months. Domestic monetary conditions are likely to tighten sharply this year, while... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How will China respond to additional US tariffs? If the USTR follows through on Trump’s request to add an additional $100bn worth of Chinese imports to the proposed US tariff list, the Chinese will be reluctant to capitulate and seem likely to... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rising trade tensions increase upside risks to inflation We think consumer price inflation will have risen further last month to a fresh multi-year high, boosted by a rise in food price inflation. This probably marks the peak for inflation this year, though... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China raises the stakes of US trade action China’s rapid and aggressive response to the proposed US tariffs has raised the stakes for both sides. But its move to publish a list of counter-tariffs is primarily intended as a deterrent and we... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Dancing to a different tune Chinese financial markets have defied global trends recently. Looser monetary conditions have pulled down the country’s bond yields since the start of the year while yields abroad were rising until... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Attack on US soybean farmers would hurt China too China’s low-key response to last week’s tariff announcement by President Trump reflects in part a desire not to exacerbate tensions further. But Chinese officials will also be aware that, while they... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Likely damage to China from tariffs only 0.1% of GDP The tariffs announced today will cause difficulties for some firms exporting from China but will have a barely perceptible impact on China’s wider economy. The key uncertainty now is whether President... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The PBOC continues to pretend to follow the Fed For the second time since December, the People’s Bank has responded to a Fed rate hike by raising the rates it charges when providing funds in China’s interbank market. But contrary to perceptions, it... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) Capital outflows edged up slightly in February in seasonally-adjusted terms, though they remain low. The PBOC again refrained from directly intervening in FX markets last month. But with the economy... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New PBOC chief a safe choice but his hands are tied After 15 years at the helm of the People’s Bank, Zhou Xiaochuan is passing the title of governor to his protégé Yi Gang, a technocrat with two decades of experience at the central bank. Yi has been a... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Government overhauled to strengthen Party control A sweeping overhaul of the structure of China’s government unveiled at the National People’s Congress today could improve financial regulation, reduce red tape for business, and boost productivity in... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the Hong Kong dollar peg under threat? The Hong Kong dollar has weakened this week to historic lows, though remaining within the narrow confines of its currency peg. But this is the result of ample domestic liquidity which has kept local... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A trade war against China would not be “easy to win” The resignation of Gary Cohn, reportedly one of the strongest proponents of free-trade policies within the Trump administration, has raised fears that US trade policy may now turn sharply towards... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New Year effects to have lifted inflation in February Following a fall in January, consumer price inflation will probably have jumped last month to a one-year high. We expect a further rise in food price inflation to keep the headline rate elevated over... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress China’s retention of an “about 6.5%” growth target for GDP in 2018, while expected, undermines the argument that growth is being demoted as a central policy concern. Growth is likely to slow we... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
