China Economics Update Weaker growth to trigger shift in policy soon There have been clearer signs recently that China’s economy is slowing. We expect headwinds to economic growth to continue to build over the coming months and that this will prompt the People’s Bank... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Rising global oil prices will put upward pressure on Chinese inflation over the next few months. But with food and core inflation both likely to edge down, we expect headline consumer price inflation... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Contours of a possible trade deal are emerging China has reportedly fleshed out its offer to boost imports from the US. In return, the US is working on a deal to allow ZTE to resume operations and may call off the planned tariffs on Chinese goods... 6th June 2018 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Renminbi still bucking EM trend The renminbi has weakened a little against the US dollar in recent weeks. But the Chinese currency has continued to appreciate in trade-weighted terms. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong dollar has bounced... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property investment is weaker than meets the eye Real estate investment has recently returned to double digit growth. But a closer look at the data reveals that this recovery has been entirely driven by a jump in developers’ land purchases, which is... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The end of birth restrictions won’t lift birth rates The State Council is reportedly mulling the removal of all remaining limits on the number of children that Chinese families can have. But the small impact of past steps to dismantle the one-child... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Rising US bond yields and trade tensions have dominated headlines over the past month. But there is no sign that either has had a big impact on flows of capital in or out of China. We estimate that... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update MSCI inclusion to have little practical impact MSCI today unveiled the full list of Chinese shares that will be added to its global indices starting next month. Inclusion is symbolically important for China’s leadership. But the impact on domestic... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update US asks for the moon in China trade talks Demands made by the US going into this week’s trade negotiations with China were unrealistically high and an agreement today was never likely. Indeed, unless the Trump administration settles for a lot... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation has peaked Consumer price inflation will probably have edged down further in April following a spike in February that took the headline rate to the highest since 2013. We think inflation will be broadly stable... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities fall to multi-month low China’s equity markets dropped this month to their lowest since 2016 as the US-China trade conflict escalated. Meanwhile, a jump in interbank interest rates may put pressure on the country’s bond... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Booming land sales flatter local government finances In aggregate, local government debt ratios have been fairly stable during the past few years and there has been a clear improvement in the composition of the debt. But the picture looks less rosy once... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) A rise in US-China trade tensions has dominated headlines in recent weeks. But recent developments are not having any impact on cross-border capital flows. Our estimates suggest that flows in and out... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Services slowdown led by finance, transport and retail The detailed breakdown of China’s Q1 GDP data released today suggests that although the IT sector has continued to boom, activity in the rest of the service sector has softened recently, offsetting a... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update RRR cut to support lending to small firms Today required reserve ratio (RRR) cut doesn’t constitute broad monetary easing. But it does signal that – despite the recent strength of the official data – policymakers are starting to balance... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong interest rates to rise as liquidity tightens The HKMA’s sales of foreign exchange FX to support the Hong Kong dollar, which hit the weak end of its trading band this week for the first time since 2005, shows the exchange rate regime working as... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
