China Economics Update Trade ceasefire is no growth panacea, even if it lasts The ceasefire agreed by Trump and Xi will help avert a sharp slowdown in US-China trade at the start of next year. But negotiations toward a lasting deal are likely to be fraught. And broader... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Assessing the impact of the tariffs so far The trade war has so far resulted in a much sharper slowdown in China’s imports from the US than its exports to the US. But exports will weaken soon unless existing tariffs are rolled back. 28th November 2018 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update More tax cuts, less infrastructure spending It comes as no surprise that Chinese officials are responding to slower growth by easing fiscal policy. But an increased focus on tax cuts and the lack of a revival in off-budget borrowing suggests... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three reasons we expect the renminbi to breach 7.0 Slower economic growth, monetary easing and escalating trade tensions will all put the renminbi under pressure in the months ahead. The People’s Bank will continue to lean in the other direction but... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC to ease policy further but retain its grip on RMB We think the upcoming reduction in banks’ required reserve ratio will be followed by cuts to the policy rate to ensure that interbank rates fall far enough to boost lending. But despite its growing... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Taking stock of the new tariffs With a further $200bn of US tariffs now confirmed, and China reiterating that it will retaliate with tariffs of its own, we take stock in this short note of where China stands in the trade war. 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Assessing the inflation risk from African swine fever The spread of African swine fever in China has brought echoes of 2007 and 2011, when major pig disease outbreaks caused spikes in pork prices and headline inflation. But improvements in China’s... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property developers are turning more cautious China’s land market has been on a tear during the past couple of years. But with officials now clamping down on the cash handouts to shantytown residents that have been supporting property demand... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Efforts to prop up infrastructure investment falling short Although fiscal policy has become more proactive lately, a reluctance to turn to off-budget borrowing means that policymakers aren’t yet doing enough to arrest the slowdown in infrastructure... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update After Mexico, could a US-China deal follow? This week’s agreement between the US and Mexico has raised hopes that the US and China could also resolve their dispute. But the agreement with Mexico underlines how much hangs on whether President... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update State firms step in to counter private-sector outflows Private firms and individuals may have pulled capital out of China in recent weeks in response to concerns about the renminbi, trade tensions and the economy. But intervention by state banks and firms... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Tariffs and renminbi fall won’t cause jump in inflation If carried out, China’s threat last week to expand tariffs to cover more than 70% of its imports from the US would nudge up import costs, though only very slightly. The renminbi’s recent depreciation... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Capital outflows from China only picked up slightly in June despite the market sell-off in the second half of the month. But there are tentative signs in the early indicators that outflows accelerated... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Loosening drive gains momentum The State Council has called for more proactive fiscal policy, including additional tax cuts. This follows further, large liquidity injections by the People’s Bank. While the direct impact of these... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A shift in fiscal policy is coming The Ministry of Finance is pushing back against calls to loosen policy. It may have little choice but to oblige, however, if headwinds to growth intensify in the coming quarters as we expect. 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Service sector holds up despite slower retail spending The detailed breakdown of China’s Q2 GDP data released today points toward resilient service sector activity last quarter, with the booming IT sector more than offsetting a slowdown in retail spending... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
