China Economics Update LPR unchanged as rate cutting cycle nears an end Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. We may see a cut or two next quarter but most signs suggest that the bulk of monetary easing this cycle has already taken place. 22nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update A faster recovery now likely We were already expecting China’s economy to return to its pre-virus path faster than other major economies and sooner than most forecasters anticipate. But with output already back to year-ago levels... 16th June 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong’s future as a global city in doubt The move by China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) to impose a new security law on Hong Kong effectively overrides the “one country, two systems” framework that has allowed Hong Kong to prosper... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update The NPC delivers on policy stimulus We had anticipated that the National People’s Congress (NPC) would lay out plans for a further ramp up in policy support and it did not disappoint. The annual budget points to fiscal stimulus this... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update A temporary pause in rate declines Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. But the dovish tone of the PBOC’s latest monetary policy report and growing pressure on the central bank to do more, including calls for... 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Targeted Medium-term Lending Facility Rate The People’s Bank (PBOC) has cut rates on yet another one of its lending facilities, but the move is more housekeeping than a shift in policy stance. 24th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Hospitality, retail & construction were worst hit in Q1 The detailed breakdown of China’s Q1 GDP data that was published over the weekend shouldn’t be taken completely at face value. But it still provides a useful framework for gauging the relative... 20th April 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Banks pass on PBOC rate cut Commercial banks lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today in response to last week’s policy rate cut. With economic conditions still weak, we expect further rate declines in the coming months. 20th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC ramps up easing but more still to come The People’s Bank (PBOC) has taken yet another step to help banks and borrowers weather the ongoing economic weakness and is preparing to lower interest rates further in the coming months. 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update What China tells us about the likely shape of recovery The economic recovery underway in China gives some useful pointers to what lies ahead for the rest of the world. An initial increase in activity can happen rapidly once lockdown measures are eased... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC moves to keep interbank rates low The People’s Bank (PBOC) has taken another step to loosen monetary conditions by lowering the rate at which it lends to banks. But the central bank’s job isn’t done yet and we anticipate continued... 30th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Supply constraints easing, demand remaining weak On current trends the extreme shock to China’s economic output caused by official closing of workplaces and limits on movement will mostly have ended by mid-April. But firm closures and job losses... 24th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged but monetary conditions still easing Commercial banks unexpectedly did not lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today. Despite this, monetary conditions are still easing as the People’s Bank (PBOC) has been using a broad set of instruments to... 20th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Output down by a fifth in Q1 The latest data point to a 20% q/q contraction in GDP this quarter (-16% y/y), even on the official figures. Given the shock to incomes and employment, the continued concern about the threat of... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC loosens further as newly-reported cases stall The People’s Bank has taken another step to push down borrowing costs. China’s economy is still operating far below its normal capacity but, with only eight new infections reported nationally in the... 13th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Can the virus be contained with little economic pain? Some countries have managed to control the new coronavirus without large-scale quarantines or economic shutdowns. But they have achieved this by preventing the virus from spreading within the... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
