China Economics Update PBOC moves to keep interbank rates low The People’s Bank (PBOC) has taken another step to loosen monetary conditions by lowering the rate at which it lends to banks. But the central bank’s job isn’t done yet and we anticipate continued... 30th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Supply constraints easing, demand remaining weak On current trends the extreme shock to China’s economic output caused by official closing of workplaces and limits on movement will mostly have ended by mid-April. But firm closures and job losses... 24th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged but monetary conditions still easing Commercial banks unexpectedly did not lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today. Despite this, monetary conditions are still easing as the People’s Bank (PBOC) has been using a broad set of instruments to... 20th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Output down by a fifth in Q1 The latest data point to a 20% q/q contraction in GDP this quarter (-16% y/y), even on the official figures. Given the shock to incomes and employment, the continued concern about the threat of... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC loosens further as newly-reported cases stall The People’s Bank has taken another step to push down borrowing costs. China’s economy is still operating far below its normal capacity but, with only eight new infections reported nationally in the... 13th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Can the virus be contained with little economic pain? Some countries have managed to control the new coronavirus without large-scale quarantines or economic shutdowns. But they have achieved this by preventing the virus from spreading within the... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Lower oil prices offer small comfort amid downturn As the world’s largest oil importer, China stands to gain from the recent fall in oil prices. But the boost to growth will be modest and won’t make up for the hit to Chinese exports from weaker global... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Policy stimulus: How much and will it work? China is easing monetary policy and lining up fiscal stimulus measures worth at least 2% of GDP. The impact will be muted as long as the workforce is still facing major disruption. But these measures... 5th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Extended shutdown deepening economic contraction With normal activity taking longer to recover than seemed likely earlier this month, we now think that China’s economy will contract outright in year-on-year terms this quarter, for the first time... 26th February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong stimulus package a good painkiller The 2020-2021 budget that the Hong Kong government announced earlier today is large in scale and should help offset the damage that the coronavirus outbreak is having on companies and consumers. But... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Rate cut still leaves many firms vulnerable Commercial banks cut the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today in response to moves by the People's Bank earlier in the month to lower their funding costs. While more easing is likely in the coming weeks, this... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Virus disruption starting to weigh on employment The vast majority of firms in China have enough funds to keep paying their creditors and employees for at least a couple of months amid the disruptions caused by the coronavirus outbreak. But a... 19th February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC cuts rates again, with more easing to come The People’s Bank (PBOC) has taken yet another step to help banks and borrowers weather the economic disruption from the coronavirus outbreak. But more easing will probably be needed. 17th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update What to make of the jump in COVID-19 cases A jump in reported cases and deaths appears to reflect the official figures getting a better grip on the true extent of past infections, rather than indicate a recent acceleration in the spread of the... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Coronavirus disruptions set to drag on Efforts to contain the virus are becoming less draconian but with many factories struggling to re-open and households not spending, it will be a while before the drag on growth fades. 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
