China Economics Update All of the service sector now back to growth The detailed breakdown of China’s Q4 GDP data published today shows that the services sector, which had been lagging construction and industry, has returned to its pre-virus growth path, with all... 19th January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Property sector facing new restrictions on credit The share of bank loans flowing to the property sector has doubled during the past 15 years. But new restrictions are likely to put an end to this upward trend. Coupled with broader limits on... 8th January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update CEWC sets more hawkish tone on monetary policy Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. But with China’s leadership eyeing a gradual withdrawal of policy support, we think the PBOC will start to hike its policy rates next... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2021 China’s rebound from the COVID-19 shock has been swifter and stronger than most anticipated. We think its economy will continue to surprise to the upside for a while, paving the way for PBOC rate... 4th December 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged as PBOC focuses on financial risks Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today, after the PBOC moved to mitigate the impact of corporate bond defaults on interbank liquidity. With growth now back to its pre-virus path... 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Assessing the benefits of the world’s biggest FTA Talks to establish the world’s biggest free-trade agreement, the Regional Economic Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP), are finally expected to conclude at the weekend. While a deal would provide a boost... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Biden victory is not a win for China A Biden presidency won’t reverse the tide of US-China decoupling and could lead to economic strains on new fronts if climate change and human rights become greater US priorities. Our senior China... 6th November 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Services still uneven but improving across the board The detailed breakdown of China’s Q3 GDP data published today shows that the recovery within the service sector remains highly uneven. Encouragingly though, all types of services activity showed a... 20th October 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged, hikes likely next year Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. With the PBOC appearing reluctant to keep monetary policy loose for longer than needed amid a broadening economic recovery, we think the... 20th October 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold with hikes likely next year Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. With the economy now largely back to its pre-virus path and the PBOC appearing reluctant to keep monetary policy loose for longer than... 21st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Stars aligned for further renminbi appreciation The renminbi has risen 5% against the US dollar since May, to its strongest since early 2019. And with China on course for a more pronounced recovery than elsewhere, its external position the... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Little appetite for further LPR declines Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. Given signs that the focus of monetary policy has shifted to containing financial risks on the back of the relatively rapid economic... 20th August 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged as policy priorities shift Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. Further rate cuts seem increasingly unlikely as the focus of monetary policy appears to be shifting from stimulating activity to... 20th July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update An uneven recovery, especially within services The detailed breakdown of China’s Q2 GDP data published today raises some questions about the purported speed of the recovery. Generally though, it is consistent with broader evidence of a sharp... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged as rate cutting cycle nears an end Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. We may see a cut or two next quarter but most signs suggest that the bulk of monetary easing this cycle has already taken place. 22nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update A faster recovery now likely We were already expecting China’s economy to return to its pre-virus path faster than other major economies and sooner than most forecasters anticipate. But with output already back to year-ago levels... 16th June 2020 · 5 mins read
