China Economics Update LPR unchanged, hikes likely next year Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. With the PBOC appearing reluctant to keep monetary policy loose for longer than needed amid a broadening economic recovery, we think the... 20th October 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold with hikes likely next year Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. With the economy now largely back to its pre-virus path and the PBOC appearing reluctant to keep monetary policy loose for longer than... 21st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Stars aligned for further renminbi appreciation The renminbi has risen 5% against the US dollar since May, to its strongest since early 2019. And with China on course for a more pronounced recovery than elsewhere, its external position the... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Little appetite for further LPR declines Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. Given signs that the focus of monetary policy has shifted to containing financial risks on the back of the relatively rapid economic... 20th August 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged as policy priorities shift Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. Further rate cuts seem increasingly unlikely as the focus of monetary policy appears to be shifting from stimulating activity to... 20th July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update An uneven recovery, especially within services The detailed breakdown of China’s Q2 GDP data published today raises some questions about the purported speed of the recovery. Generally though, it is consistent with broader evidence of a sharp... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update LPR unchanged as rate cutting cycle nears an end Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. We may see a cut or two next quarter but most signs suggest that the bulk of monetary easing this cycle has already taken place. 22nd June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update A faster recovery now likely We were already expecting China’s economy to return to its pre-virus path faster than other major economies and sooner than most forecasters anticipate. But with output already back to year-ago levels... 16th June 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong’s future as a global city in doubt The move by China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) to impose a new security law on Hong Kong effectively overrides the “one country, two systems” framework that has allowed Hong Kong to prosper... 22nd May 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update The NPC delivers on policy stimulus We had anticipated that the National People’s Congress (NPC) would lay out plans for a further ramp up in policy support and it did not disappoint. The annual budget points to fiscal stimulus this... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update A temporary pause in rate declines Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. But the dovish tone of the PBOC’s latest monetary policy report and growing pressure on the central bank to do more, including calls for... 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Targeted Medium-term Lending Facility Rate The People’s Bank (PBOC) has cut rates on yet another one of its lending facilities, but the move is more housekeeping than a shift in policy stance. 24th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Hospitality, retail & construction were worst hit in Q1 The detailed breakdown of China’s Q1 GDP data that was published over the weekend shouldn’t be taken completely at face value. But it still provides a useful framework for gauging the relative... 20th April 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Banks pass on PBOC rate cut Commercial banks lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today in response to last week’s policy rate cut. With economic conditions still weak, we expect further rate declines in the coming months. 20th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC ramps up easing but more still to come The People’s Bank (PBOC) has taken yet another step to help banks and borrowers weather the ongoing economic weakness and is preparing to lower interest rates further in the coming months. 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update What China tells us about the likely shape of recovery The economic recovery underway in China gives some useful pointers to what lies ahead for the rest of the world. An initial increase in activity can happen rapidly once lockdown measures are eased... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
