Commodities Update Central banks buying more gold ≠ ditching the dollar Whilst buying gold may reduce central banks’ overall exposure to the dollar, we don’t think that the surge in central bank gold demand reflects a severe loss of confidence in the greenback. Instead... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Could the US coerce others to increase tariffs on China? The US would have to exert a lot of pressure to coerce most major countries into putting large tariffs on goods from China. Curtailing trade with China would have an economic cost and even countries... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Overcapacity to keep China in deflation Deflation has reared its head again in China, underscoring the problem of persistent supply and demand imbalances. The limited extra support for consumption outlined at the National People’s Congress... 18th March 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China’s latest consumption plan fails to deliver China’s government has launched a new “Special Action Plan” to support consumption. Talk of prioritising consumption is encouraging on paper. But the leadership has been talking about this since a... 17th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Rising US tariffs to test China’s exchange rate policy With US tariffs now escalating, the key question is whether the People’s Bank (PBOC) will allow the exchange rate to adjust in response. We think it ultimately will, just as it did during the first... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Is Trump’s opening to Russia a “Reverse Nixon”? President Trump’s attempts to reset relations with Russia have led some to suggest that he may be attempting to break apart the Sino-Russian alliance as Nixon did in the early 1970s (although in Nixon... 27th February 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Homebuilding downturn will continue for years Policy support is helping developers secure financing and should boost their sales this year. This will allow them to intensify work on existing projects. But it won’t prevent homebuilding activity... 27th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Event China Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environment 1741161600 This year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) is taking place against a difficult backdrop for China’s economy; stimulus efforts have so far had only a fleeting impact on activ
China Economics Update Here’s what China can offer to buy from the US President Trump has signalled that he is open to the possibility of a new trade deal with China, though probably not before tensions rachet up further. This would likely involve China committing to... 25th February 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Reciprocal tariffs underscore Trump threat for China China is among a minority of countries that apply lower tariff rates on the US than vice versa, so it is not as obviously exposed to reciprocal tariffs as many others. But President Trump’s latest... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China adds to export controls in a bid to pressure US China added five critical minerals to its export control list last week but stopped short of banning their sale. The move was intended as a warning to the Trump administration and to increase China’s... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Chinese retailers to suffer under Trump’s trade policies The end of the de minimis tariff exemption for US imports of low-value goods from China will be a major blow to Chinese e-commerce giants like Temu and Shein. They’re likely to lose market share to... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China gets off lightly on tariffs, for now The additional 10% tariff that Donald Trump has applied on Chinese goods will have a relatively modest impact on China’s economy, especially if the PBOC allows the renminbi to adjust. But this is... 3rd February 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Is China overtaking in AI? DeepSeek’s success in developing AI models that rival those of US tech-giants has rattled US markets. While this does suggest that catching up to the technological frontier in AI may be easier than... 30th January 2025 · 5 mins read
