China Economic Outlook Pivot to stimulus lowers immediate risks A pivot towards fiscal and monetary stimulus should support China’s growth in the near-term. But the economy continues to be propped up by investment, still elevated levels of construction, and the... 27th September 2024 · 16 mins read
China Economic Outlook Manufacturing boom to shore up growth a while longer China’s economy is on course to expand by 5.5% this year, buoyed by policy support and strong exports. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook. 25th June 2024 · 15 mins read
China Economic Outlook Prop from stimulus to be short-lived China’s economy has fared better recently and policy support is likely to remain a near-term prop to growth. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook. 27th March 2024 · 15 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stronger start, weaker end to 2024 China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 6th December 2023 · 18 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stimulus to deliver partial recovery China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling for a brief period during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains... 27th September 2023 · 17 mins read
China Economic Outlook Recovery needs help but isn’t dead yet China’s reopening recovery is struggling for momentum and quarter-on-quarter growth will be subdued for the rest of the year. But with policymakers likely to step up support soon, the economy should... 28th June 2023 · 18 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening recovery to shift down a gear Much of the economic boost from China’s reopening has already happened. While there is still some upside to consumer and services activity, weakened balance sheets and limited policy support mean the... 29th March 2023 · 23 mins read
China Economic Outlook Bumpy road before zero-COVID is left behind The authorities are making policy changes to address two of the key drags on China’s economy, the zero-COVID policy and the property sector downturn. But it will be a while before these efforts bear... 9th December 2022 · 23 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening rebound set to slow Activity has bounced back from lockdowns but China’s economic recovery will become more challenging from here on as exports turn from tailwind to headwind and the property downturn deepens. Policy... 28th July 2022 · 22 mins read
China Economic Outlook No quick fix this time China’s economy rebounded sharply from the initial COVID-19 outbreak. The recovery will be slower and more muted this time, even if the ongoing COVID outbreak is successfully quashed, as less policy... 26th April 2022 · 21 mins read
China Economic Outlook Cyclical trough, tepid rebound China will be buffeted in the first half of 2022 by COVID outbreaks and a further slowdown in property construction. Policy support should improve the picture later in the year, but mounting... 26th January 2022 · 23 mins read
China Economic Outlook Downturn setting in The economy slowed sharply in Q3. Weakness in services is already reversing as virus controls have been relaxed again. But industry and construction are on the cusp of a deeper downturn that could... 26th October 2021 · 23 mins read
China Economics Coming down to earth China’s economy has been defying gravity thanks to elevated global demand but this support may now be fading. Meanwhile, last year’s policy easing has been fully reversed. An abrupt slowdown is not... 23rd July 2021 · 22 mins read
China Economic Outlook Rebound levelling off After treading water in Q1, activity should pick up again this quarter following the relaxation of domestic travel restrictions. But growth will be more modest than most expect over the next couple of... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook A year of two halves China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and... 21st January 2021 · 22 mins read
