China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul 13.) China’s flash PMI for July was, again, worse than most had expected. There was little in the breakdown to suggest that conditions might soon turn around. That said, other, broader measures of activity... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending & Outstanding Credit (Jun.) Round one in the fight between policymakers and lenders has gone to the former. Outstanding credit growth has slowed. But the key, as yet unanswered, question is whether the slowdown will continue now... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response China’s commodity imports remain subdued China’s commodity imports were stronger than overall trade in June, but were still weak in the first half of 2013 overall. What’s more, China is shifting to a lower and less commodity-intensive growth... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun. 13) June’s pick-up in consumer price inflation was the result of increases in vegetable and pork price inflation. Core inflation fell. Looking ahead, although vegetable price inflation may now stabilise... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun. 13) Today’s PMIs suggest that firms weathered the cash crunch well and, with interbank rates now dropping back, it may appear that the crisis has passed. But a slowdown in credit growth and greater... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jun. 13) Today’s worse-than-expected reading on China’s flash PMI gives a further reason to expect GDP growth to slow this quarter. Policymakers care more about the state of the labour market than the headline... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) China’s two manufacturing PMIs moved in opposite directions in May, with the official index above 50 and rising and the HSBC/Markit index dropping below 50. The second of these is more representative... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (May 13) Today’s sub-50 reading on the flash PMI will shake the confidence of China’s policymakers, who have remained sanguine in the face of slow growth so far this year. We suspect they will resist the... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending (Apr.) Credit growth has continued to accelerate. This hasn’t had a positive impact on economic growth so far but we expect it to feed a small pick-up in activity in the months ahead. 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) The pick-up in headline consumer price inflation in April was driven by a rebound in vegetable prices, which should be short-lived. But headline inflation is still likely to edge higher over the... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Another downbeat data release, this time of China’s official PMI, adds to evidence that the economy remains weak after the slowdown in Q1. Indeed, the headline figure probably overstates current... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr. 13) China once again disappointed expectations with today’s release of a downbeat April flash PMI. Nonetheless, with the labour market still looking healthy, we think policymakers will remain focused on... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending (Mar.) & FX reserves (Q1) The stronger-than-expected rise in bank lending in March will reinforce concerns that credit growth is on an unsustainable path. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank has resumed its accumulation of foreign... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) The larger-than-expected fall in headline inflation in March simply reflects the usual seasonal patterns stemming from the Chinese New Year. Looking ahead, inflation is likely to pick up again soon on... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Today’s flash PMI from HSBC and Markit points to a rebound in manufacturing activity in March. The latest figures were stronger than expected but with other recent releases disappointing and the usual... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb. 13) Seasonal factors may have played a part, but the weakness of China’s two manufacturing PMIs last month cannot entirely be explained by the timing of Chinese New Year. They suggest that the economic... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
