China Data Response Lending, credit (Dec.) & FX reserves (Q4) December’s credit data are likely to set the tone for 2014: tighter monetary conditions are curbing credit growth. We expect this in turn to slow the growth of the economy. Meanwhile, the foreign... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Consumer price inflation fell further in December on the back of a sharp drop in food inflation. It may rebound this month due to the usual price volatility around Chinese New Year but is likely to... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The latest PMI surveys signal that there was a broad slowdown in manufacturing activity at the end of 2013. Most notably, activity among large firms, a recent source of strength, has turned a corner... 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) Today’s downbeat flash PMI leaves little doubt that the manufacturing sector is now cooling. Tighter access to credit will continue to weigh on growth in 2014. 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending & Outstanding Credit (Nov.) While bank lending was stronger than anticipated last month, overall credit growth continued to slow. The relative strength of loan demand may reflect the fact that rising market interest rates have... 11th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Industrial production, retail sales & investment (Nov.) Today's activity data releases provide further evidence that the momentum behind the summer rebound has peaked despite renewed strength in the state sector. A tighter policy stance is likely to cause... 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov 13.) The latest PMI surveys beat expectations but they also hint that momentum in manufacturing has peaked. In particular, output is outpacing orders. Meanwhile, all of the recent gains have come from... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov 13.) Today's downbeat flash PMI adds to the evidence that the recent economic rebound is fading. The efforts of policymakers to slow credit growth are set to further weigh on growth in the months ahead. 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct 13.) Both PMI surveys released today suggest that China’s manufacturing sector picked up at the beginning of Q4. But in each case the breakdown of the survey paints a less rosy picture than the headline... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct 13.) The manufacturing sector has gained some strength in October according to today's flash PMI but, with the government trying to rein in credit, slower growth lies ahead. 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep. 13) The September HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI came in a full point weaker than the flash reading released last week. This might be a sign that the economic rebound has stalled, but the shift seems... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep 13.) The continued pick-up in today’s flash PMI signals that the summer turnaround in China’s manufacturing is continuing to the end of Q3. We continue to doubt that the rebound will last. For now though... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity, spending & credit (Aug.) Today’s data releases give further evidence that China’s economy is picking up speed. But the rebound is skewed towards investment, with state-led spending on infrastructure particularly strong. The... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug 13.) After some slightly mixed signals in July, August’s pick-up in both manufacturing PMIs leaves no doubt that China’s manufacturing sector has witnessed a rebound. It still appears though that the... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug 13.) The strong rebound in August’s flash PMI should reassure even the most bearish that China has avoided an imminent hard-landing. We continue to believe however that the rebound will prove short-lived... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul 13.) July’s rise in the official manufacturing PMI was unexpected, and it stands in contrast to the fall in the HSBC/Markit index which was also confirmed today. But the increase did not come completely... 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
