China Data Response China Trade (Jun.) Import volumes fell to a three-year low last month, pointing to continued weakness in China’s construction sector. Exports rebounded strongly as shipping bottlenecks eased. But we think this may be... 13th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (June) A further slight pick-up in credit growth last month was given a big helping hand from government bond issuance as local governments were instructed to issue their annual allocation of bonds by the... 11th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI hit a 13-month high in June and points to a jump in output as virus restrictions were lifted and supply chain conditions improved. But it still points to subdued demand... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Jun.) The official PMIs point to a surprisingly rapid recovery in services activity this month after virus restrictions were mostly lifted. But this likely reflects a one-off boost from reopening and we... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (May) The May data suggest that a post-lockdown recovery got underway across most parts of the economy last month. It is likely to have progressed further in June. But the recent resurgence in infections in... 15th June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Credit growth was stronger than expected last month. It is likely to accelerate following the clear signal in late May that policymakers want banks to step up lending. More policy easing is likely... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Consumer price inflation was unchanged last month and remains well below the government’s target of 3%, while producer price inflation dropped to its lowest in a year. As such, inflation is unlikely... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (May) Export and import y/y growth picked up last month. In volume terms, exports rebounded while imports were largely unchanged. We think outbound shipments will soften again before long amid growing... 9th June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) The Caixin manufacturing index published today rebounded last month thanks to the easing of virus containment measures. Taken together with the official survey, they suggest that a recovery in... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (May) The official PMIs add to broader evidence that activity has started to rebound as containment measures were rolled back. That said, the recovery is likely to remain tepid amid weak external demand and... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Apr.) The April data were even weaker than expected and are consistent with a sharp contraction in economic activity. Provided that the virus situation continues to improve, the economy should begin to... 16th May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) Lending was much weaker than expected last month as lockdowns weighed on credit demand. This should nudge the PBOC to announce further easing measures soon. But the central bank continues to signal a... 13th May 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Consumer prices rose at a faster pace last month. But inflation remains relatively subdued and there are already signs in the producer price data of upstream price pressures easing. As such, inflation... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Apr.) Goods trade softened further last month. Virus disruptions continued to take a toll but the main headwind to exports is weakening foreign demand. 9th May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s GDP contracted in the first quarter of the year, and although there are signs that activity is rebounding, we expect the recovery to prove weak. While virus containment measures are being... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) Official GDP growth beat expectations last quarter but it still slowed in q/q terms. In practice, the figures probably understate the slowdown. And growth looks set to be even weaker in Q2 given the... 18th April 2022 · 3 mins read
