China Data Response Trade (Apr.) A weaker-than-expected recovery in export growth suggests that foreign demand has softened going into Q2. Domestic demand also appears subdued, though the contraction in imports is still largely... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) A stable PMI for China counts as good news after the recent run of poor data. But the official PMI has not been a particularly reliable guide to trends in industry over the past few months, so we’re... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) China’s flash PMI remains subdued, but not substantially weaker than over the past six months. Today’s reading for April does not support the view that activity is plunging. 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Mar.) & FX reserves (Q1 Credit issuance was unusually weak in March but, with the late Chinese New Year break still casting a shadow, we wouldn’t read too much into this. Meanwhile, the fall in the value of foreign exchange... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) We suspect that the slump in China’s exports last month was the result of seasonal disruption to output rather than weakness in demand. On the import side, the headline figures still look awful, but... 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Consumer price inflation held steady in March but we expect a drop in food price inflation to pull it lower over the coming months. Although inflation is likely to remain in positive territory, a... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Today's PMI readings suggests that manufacturing conditions, among large firms at least, have held up better than expected. But this doesn’t do away with the need for more policy support to prevent... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Today's PMI reading adds to evidence of a sharp slowdown in Q1. We expect policymakers to respond by stepping up measures to support growth. 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Credit growth strengthened last month on the back of a more accommodative policy stance. That said, we still think that concerns over the build-up of credit risks mean policymakers will stop short of... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) The slowdown in activity at the start of 2015 was even sharper than today’s headline figures might suggest because a bout of weakness a year before had provided a flattering base for comparison... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) February’s seasonal pick-up in food inflation will likely prove short-lived and we still expect inflation to fall back below 1% in coming months. Nonetheless, today's inflation data suggest that... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Feb.) Export growth has been strong so far this year, even after adjusting for the New Year volatility that led to surge in growth last month. That said, rapid trade-weighted renminbi appreciation and a... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) February's stronger-than-expected PMI readings suggest that a pick-up in domestic demand has led to a slight improvement in momentum, particularly among small firms, and that downward pressure on... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Today's PMI suggests that economic momentum has improved slightly and that downward pressure on inflation is easing. That said, it also points to weaker external demand on the back of rapid trade... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Today’s lending data suggest that while a slightly more accommodative policy stance has continued to support bank lending, broader credit growth remains on a downward path. 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Inflation fell to a five-year low in January but we don’t think this should spark concerns over impending deflation. The drop was largely due to volatile food prices ahead of Chinese New Year and... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
