China Data Response Q4 GDP & December Activity Data The continued stability of the official GDP figures will do little to assuage concerns over their credibility. But even our own estimates, which point to much slower growth, suggest that the economy... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Today’s data suggest that lending to the real economy remained strong at the end of last year, which should help support economic activity in the coming months. The loose monetary stance currently... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) China’s trade data for December support our view that, despite the turmoil in Chinese financial markets, there has not been a major deterioration in its economy in recent months. Meanwhile, another... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) China’s economy is beset with a host of problems, but inflation isn’t one. Consumer price inflation remains high enough to keep concerns about deflation at bay but low enough to give policymakers... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Dec.) While today's unofficial manufacturing PMI hints at some further weakness in the manufacturing sector, other indicators suggest that the economy as a whole held up reasonably well last month. 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Today’s data remain consistent with our view that policy easing is helping to buoy credit growth. 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov.) Today's data is consistent with our view that domestic price pressures are on the rise and that inflation is set to rebound going into next year. 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Nov.) Disappointing export data suggest that foreign demand remains subdued. More positively, a recovery in imports hints at a policy driven pick-up in domestic demand. 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Nov.) Today’s data suggest that capital outflows picked up sharply last month, leading the People’s Bank to resume selling FX in order to prop up the value of the renminbi. 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Nov.) The latest PMI readings suggest that construction and service sector activity picked up last month and that momentum in the manufacturing sector, although still subdued, may also have improved... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) Hong Kong is often seen as a bellwether for the state of global trade. As such, its latest GDP figures are relatively reassuring, with growth of goods exports picking up and GDP growth last quarter... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) The weaker-than-expected October lending data are likely to add to doubts over the effectiveness of policy support. But overall credit growth is nonetheless continuing to accelerate, which is positive... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) Industrial activity remained subdued last month but a pick-up in investment and strong retail sales suggest that the economy is still on track for a recovery over the coming quarters. 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Volatile food prices aside, price pressures were largely stable in October. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to edge higher in the coming months. But the window for further interest rate cuts will... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Oct.) The latest PMI readings suggest that momentum in the manufacturing sector continued to improve last month, helped by a pick-up in foreign demand, and that service sector growth is still holding up... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Q3 GDP & September Activity Data The continued stability of the official GDP figures will further cement concerns over their credibility. For our part, while we do think the official figures are currently overstating growth by a wide... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
