China Data Response

Trade & FX Reserves (Apr.)

Trade growth was always likely to slow sharply in April after the seasonal surge in March. More positively, the contraction in both exports and imports wasn't as deep last month as it has been over...

9th May 2016 · 1 min read

China Data Response

PMIs (Apr.)

Weaker-than-expected PMI readings for April don’t alter our relatively upbeat view on the short-run prospects for China’s economy.

3rd May 2016 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Q1 GDP, March Activity & Credit

While GDP growth edged down in Q1, there are at least signs in the more recent data that momentum was improving going into this quarter. With monetary and fiscal conditions still being loosened and...

15th April 2016 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Trade (Mar.)

China’s trade data for March point to healthy growth in import volumes and add to growing evidence that the extreme gloom of a few weeks ago about the state of the domestic economy was misplaced.

13th April 2016 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.)

Inflation remained elevated by recent standards last month. But this is arguably welcome given previous concerns over deflation risks. It also shouldn't prevent further monetary easing given that...

11th April 2016 · 1 min read

China Data Response

FX Reserves (Mar.)

Receding fears over a sharp renminbi devaluation, along with favourable exchange rate movements, has helped end the recent string of declines in the value of China’s FX reserves.

7th April 2016 · 1 min read

China Data Response

PMIs (Mar.)

Today's better-than-expected PMI readings are consistent with our long-held view that policy easing will result in a cyclical upturn in China’s economy this year.

1st April 2016 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.)

China’s credit data show some extreme swings in the past two months which are the result of seasonal factors. But the underlying picture is that credit growth continues to accelerate, consistent with...

11th March 2016 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.)

The jump in food inflation last month was seasonal and will prove short-lived. Price pressures elsewhere are likely to pick up in coming quarters but should stop short of becoming a constraint on...

10th March 2016 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Trade (Feb.)

The contraction in China’s exports deepened last month but this weakness should soon reverse as seasonal distortions fade. Meanwhile, relatively strong commodity import volumes ought to help assuage...

8th March 2016 · 1 min read

China Data Response

FX reserves (Feb.)

The smallest fall in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves in four months suggests that capital outflows have eased, allowing the People’s Bank (PBOC) to slow the pace of its intervention.

7th March 2016 · 1 min read

China Data Response

PMIs (Feb.)

Today's PMIs suggest the economy lost some momentum last month but monetary policy easing by the People's Bank helps to limit the downside risks going forward.

1st March 2016 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.)

Today’s data point to a sharp acceleration in credit growth going into 2016. This is consistent with our view that growth is more likely to pick up than slow over the coming quarters.

16th February 2016 · 1 min read

China Data Response

Trade (Jan.)

Today’s trade figures make for gloomy reading. But things may not be as bad as they look. Commodity import volumes remained resilient and we suspect that at least some of the weakness in the data...

15th February 2016 · 1 min read

China Data Response

PMIs (Jan.)

Today's manufacturing PMIs offer conflicting signals on the state of the economy going into 2016. On balance though, they suggest conditions remained subdued but broadly stable last month.

1st February 2016 · 1 min read