China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) The decline in China’s foreign exchange reserves appears to be due to valuation effects rather than direct intervention in the FX market. But we still think the PBOC will try, and may well succeed, in... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Sep.) The surveys suggest that China’s economy continued to lose momentum in September, with the global downturn weighing on exports and virus disruptions dealing a fresh blow to services activity. While... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Aug.) China’s economy held up slightly better than anticipated last month, but momentum still weakened relative to July amid renewed virus disruptions and factory closures due to power shortages. September... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) There was a further deceleration in credit growth last month, with a new wave of lockdowns adding to the problems in the housing market that have been hitting credit demand. Credit growth will... 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Consumer price inflation fell in August and remains below the PBOC’s preferred ceiling of 3%, leaving room for the Bank to ease policy further. Meanwhile, producer price inflation declined to its... 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Aug.) A sizeable fall in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves in August may be further evidence of the PBOC pushing back against the slide in the renminbi. If the currency were to breach 7 to the... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Aug.) China’s export volumes fell last month by the most since March. Partly, this was due to the backlog of orders that built up during Shanghai’s lockdown having been cleared and ports returning to normal... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The larger-than-expected drop in Caixin manufacturing PMI was more significant than the slight rise in the official PMI, suggesting that downward pressure on industry intensified last month. There is... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Aug.) The official PMIs show a further loss in economic momentum this month as the reopening boost waned and the property downturn deepened. We continue to think the economy will struggle to make much... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jul.) The July data suggest that the post-lockdown recovery lost steam as the one-off boost from reopening fizzled out and mortgage boycotts triggered a renewed deterioration in the property sector. We... 15th August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Credit growth dropped back last month, with property market jitters weighing on bank lending. It may continue to disappoint in the near-term given that sentiment among homebuyers is likely to stay... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Consumer price inflation rose to a 24-month high in July and is now nearing the government’s target of 3%. But that is still very low by global standards, and we think headline inflation is close to a... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Jul.) Exports held up well last month, thanks to a backlog of orders still being cleared. But it won’t be long before shipments drop back on cooling foreign demand. Meanwhile, imports continued to trend... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s GDP ticked up last quarter as the easing of virus restrictions boosted consumption. But the recovery was muted, held back by a drop in exports. We think growth will remain weak given... 1st August 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Jul.) The surveys suggest that China’s economic recovery slowed in July as the one-off boost from reopening faded. It is consistent with our view that activity will remain below trend in the coming quarters... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) The statistics bureau claim that output in Q2 was slightly higher than a year ago. That’s implausible even accounting for the strong rebound shown on the monthly data for June. 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
